Quiet Weather Through the Weekend!

10/31/2012
10:00pm

Unfortunately, Sandy lived up to her expectations delivering the worst hurricane hit to the mid-atlantic coast in a longtime and maybe ever. Nothing can describe some of the pictures I am seeing from coastal New Jersey and New York than just DEVASTATION. In fact a lot of the images sadly remind me of what I saw after Katrina. And for the mountains, our first significant snow of the year is behind us. Most areas in the high country broke October snowfall records.

The weather will turn quiet for the remainder of the week and through the weekend. Temperatures will remain on the chilly side of normal for early November. Although the still yet high sun angle will help to melt some of the snow.

By Sunday a storm system will begin to take shape again to our west as the Jet Stream once again begins to buckle. Right now we are getting two different scenarios:

1- The European (which did very well with Sandy) has a quick clipper type system that will bring some rain to the mountains and foothills, then heads out to sea never really developing a coast storm.

2- The GFS (which was slow to catch onto Sandy but still did well five days out) has the energy coming from Canada (clipper) and a piece of energy coming from the southwest phasing and bringing a storm up the coast. The storm would be nothing like the Super storm Sandy we just had but would likely bring interior snow to the Appalachians and rain/rough surf to the coast.

The north atlantic oscillation (NAO) remains very negative, which favors coastal storms, and the overall pattern next week looks very similar to this week so I am currently in favor of the GFS. Below is a map of what I think will happen next week:

It is entirely to early to determine whether we have snow in the mountains or rain, but temperatures will remain chilly. Stay tuned for updates on next weeks weather. -Kris

Significant Storm Now looks Likely!

10.26.12
11:30 pm

Sandy is beginning to transition to a hybrid or ex-tropical system but is also about to undergo explosive strengthening. Most tropical systems begin to weaken when they lose their tropical characteristics. The    opposite will occur in this scenario. A very strong arctic/polar jet stream is going to dig underneath Sandy ventilating the system over very warm waters off the east coast and allow the system to really deepen rapidly. The pressure currently is 969 mb, I expect the pressure in Sandy to bottom out around 945 mb. The National Hurricane Center will probably keep the system named Hurricane Sandy but she is really a very large and dangerous nor'easter now.

I want to be clear, this is a life-threatening storm for the mid-atlantic and northeast. This could be a once and a lifetime storm for them. North Carolina will see significant impacts but this is NOT... going to be a Historic storm for the Tar-heel State but it can still cause property damage and loss of life if not taken seriously. So please be prepared!

My current track (please keep in mind that this is a MASSIVE system so it will have far reaching affects):

Forecasted SUSTAINED Wind Speeds (expect higher gust):

Forecasted Snowfall:

Forecasted impacts for North Carolina:

Mountains: 

• Snow- could be heavy with significant accumulations of 4" or more possible (Sunday night- Tuesday night)
• Winds- 30-50 mph gusts to 65 mph
•  Possible Tree Damage and the "potential" for widespread power outages

Foothills and Piedmont: 

• Mostly dry, few showers or rain squalls
• Winds- 25-35 mph gusts to 50 mph
•  Possible Tree Damage (mostly large branches) and isolated power outages

Coastal Areas: 

• Heavy rain and squalls, flooding possible
• Winds - 45-55 mph gusts to 70 mph
• Breaking waves- 12-18' northern outer banks, 20' Hatteras Island, 8-12' Wilmington area.
• Tree Damage likely, roof shingle damage, widespread power outages, significant coastal          flooding and erosion

I will try to update again tomorrow evening or Sunday with more details on potential impacts to the region. -Kris                    

Sandy and Superstorm?

10.22.12 8:00 pm

Yesterday I talked about the possibility of soon to be Sandy phasing with the strong trough that is coming down out of NW Canada, this scenario is actually looking more likely and is now the most likely solution which will create a massive "Hybrid Super-storm" over the mid-atlantic and northeast United States.

The blue track (1) is the track that will phase Sandy with the strong trough diving to the southeast. I give this solution a 1 in 2 or 50% chance of occurring today. This will cause a huge storm of historic proportions for the northeast and mid-atlantic with over hurricane force winds on the coast, large storm surge and flooding rains. It will also cause Blizzard conditions and several feet of snow over the interior mountains to the southwest of the track. Places such as PA, WVa, OH NY and into MI could be in line for major snows. 

The purple track (2) I give a 35% chance of occurring, where the low level center of Sandy continues to the northeast and does not phase with the trough but some of Sandy's energy and heat gets  transferred into the trough and still creates a larger storm but probably not a historic storm. This track still would have strong winds and beach erosion on the coast and heavy interior snows but not to the magnitude of track one. 

The red track (3) I give a 15% chance of occurring. This is the least likely scenario. In fact the only model showing this track is the GFS and it notoriously has trouble flattening out the trough and spreading the energy out instead of bundling it. This track would lead to no storm, keeping Sandy and the trough completely separate. The east would still get cold and lake effect snows would still fly but no significant storm.

Here is my forecast track and intensity of Sandy through the rest of the week, keep in mind after this time is when the phasing and significant storm over the northeast will occur.

I will have more on what will happen with Sandy and the potential "super-storm" later this week.

Below is the image of the European model with Hurricane/Nor'easter Sandy at peak intensity of 928 mb. Keep in mind Katrina was 920 at her first landfall in Louisiana and Hurricane Andrew was 922 mb. So this is a very intense storm making landfall in New England.

(model image courtesy of weather-bell analytics and weatherbell.com)

Regardless of the outcome, much colder air will dive into the east late in the weekend and next week and will likely still bring the seasons first snow flakes (flurries and light snow showers) to the North Carolina high country. Even if a massive storm occurs it should be far enough to the north and east that the high country escapes a crippling snow event.

Stay tuned for updates... Kris

One Last Tropical System and Then A Cold Start to November

Most of this week will be an easy forecast. Temperatures will be about 4-6 degrees above normal and abundant sunshine.

Here is the latest image from the National Hurricane Center:

They are giving the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean a High (70%) chance of tropical storm formation in the next 48 hours. This system should become a named storm by Tuesday (Tropical Storm Sandy) and be in the southern Bahamas by Wednesday. After that things get a little bit interesting. A strong trough will be diving out of western Canada towards the southeast. The most likely scenario would be for soon to be Sandy to get picked up and recurved out to sea. Sandy is likely to become a minimal hurricane as she passes off shore of the southeast United States. Below is the Map I created this morning in regard to what I am currently thinking. The red points are my actual forecast position and intensity of soon to be Sandy. The yellow cone represents the possible scenarios. 

The less likely scenario would be for the trough to phase with Sandy and actually pull the storm into the Mid-Atlantic States. I am calling this scenario the Hazel idea. In 1954 Hurricane Hazel developed south of the Dominican Republic and was pulled NE across the island before it was captured by a trough coming southeast. Hazel phased with this trough which not only caused a NW motion but also intensified the storm. Hazel made landfall on the North Carolina/South Carolina border on the morning of October 15th 1954 as a category 4 hurricane.

 This scenario is not my current forecast but is not that far fetched of an Idea. Right now I give this scenario a 20% chance of occurring. 

Regardless, high waves and strong rip currents will be possible by late week for most of the east coast. and after the trough moves in from Canada very cold air for this time of year will be in place. There is a good chance that the first snow flakes of the year will be flying across the North Carolina mountains by next Sunday or Monday (just flurries or snow showers). I will post more on the cold coming later.

updated: 10/21/12 at 9:07 am

First Major Cold Snap Looms.
Of course now that winter is approaching, I'll be back to blogging. Hopefully I can do a lot better than last year in terms of accuracy. :)

Overall the weather will be rather calm the next 7 days. This weekend will be chilly, especially Saturday. We could see some valley frost Saturday night and again Sunday night. Next week looks fairly warm for most of the Western Carolina's.

After next week, a major pattern shift looks likely as cold air and storminess will be building to our north and west across the plain states. The season's last tropical system is likely to develop in the western Caribbean and move through the Bahamas and up just off shore of the east coast which should help deepen the trough diving into the eastern United States. Along with this cold shot, a widespread killing frost/freeze is likely for a good portion of the southeast including the western Carolina's. The mountains may also see their first northwest flow snow flurries or showers (no big deal).

Forecasted Temperature Anomaly Ranges: Through 10.26.12

Most of next week looks warm but you can see the Cold beginning to build along the Canadian Boarder. These are temperature anomalies, or how far above or below average temperatures are. So Montana's temperatures next week look to be about 6 to 12 degrees below average for this time of year and our temperatures look to be up to 6 degrees above average for this time of year.

Forecasted Temperature Anomaly Ranges: 10.27.12 - 11.1.12 (Maps by Kris Hartley)

Towards the end of October and the beginning of November a strong through will move into the eastern 2/3 of the nation allowing that very cold air along the Canadian border to spill into the south and east parts of the country.  Temperatures as you can see are forecasted to be significantly below average. Looking even further out: much of November as it stands now looks cold.

Updated: 10.19.12 at 11:56 pm.

Light Snow Event #2 and Another Cold shot next week...

Last night was a wild evening again in the mountains. Temperatures dropped 20 degrees in 1.5-2 hours. What began as rain turned to ice and eventually THUNDER SNOW!!! Heavy Snow started falling in Boone around 9:00 pm last evening along with thunder, lightning and winds to 60 mph. Roads were extremely hazardous this morning along with many reports of near white-out conditions. Forecast snow totals where on the money with dusting-1" in the far east, 2-3" where most people live and 3-5"+ on the western side of the county. Beech and Sugar both reported 6"+ of snow through today.

Forecast Discussion: Temperatures will fall rapidly tonight as winds begin to slack off some. Valley's in the mountains will fall deep in the teens and maybe a few single digits. Boone should fall to about 15 and the ridge tops should hold steady or warm slightly. Temperatures in the foothills should fall to about 20-22  and 22-25 in the Piedmont. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer, temperatures will approach the 32 degree mark in the mountains, 42-45 in the Foothills and 45-47 in the Piedmont.

Tomorrow night another small but potent upper level disturbance will approach the mountains. Snow will break out later tomorrow evening. Expect a dusting - 2" for most with 2-3" at the higher elevations near the Tennessee line. A few flurries or light snow showers are also possible in the Foothills and northern Piedmont. Tomorrow nights event should not produce near the problems on the roads that we saw this morning in the mountains. Temperatures will moderate as we head into the first of next week. Rain should arrive Tuesday morning before another strong cold front crashes through the area Wednesday. Snow showers will again be possible Wednesday in the mountains behind this strong cold front.

Tomorrow nights snow map:

Long Range: Next weeks cold shot should last 3-4 days before moderating. The rest of January will feature some warm spells and cold shots with wetter than average conditions. Look for a Change to colder weather by the end of January and the First of February. Overall temperatures will be much cool than they have been for most of the winter and by the beginning of February the pattern change should be complete. I still expect to see several snow events from February-March in the Foothills and Piedmont locations.

Update: 1.13.12
10:30pm

Tornado's? Two Light Snow Events Coming...

Today turned out mostly as expected. Rain fell most of the day, heavy at times. Officially here at my weather station we picked up 1.42" of rain which was right in the middle of the 1-2" forecast.I am sure there were some totals between 2-3" along the blue ridge. I did not see the severe weather coming that we had this evening. A possible tornado occurred (which I labeled in red on the snow-map) in the foothill causing significant structure damage to some areas. At one point several people were trapped in their basement after their home collapsed and several injuries have been report from a mobile home being overturned. Based on the reports I have heard I do think this will be a confirmed tornado and probably be rated an EF-2 (winds 111-135 mph). Temperatures were in the 40s and some low 50s which usually is not warm enough to support severe weather but the upper level dynamics rotated right across the area creating very unstable conditions right around sunset leading to our mini-severe weather outbreak. Some of these thunderstorms contained hail, vivid lightning and cloud tops that extended over 30,000ft high. These types of thunderstorms are usually observed in the spring and summer around here.

Forecast Discussion:
Tomorrow could be another wild day but much more winter like. Fog will give way to mostly/partly cloudy conditions by noon for most of the area. A strong low pressure area over the great lakes will drag a strong cold front through the region Thursday night with strong winds, more rain/thunderstorms changing quickly to snow showers/few snow squalls in the mountains. A small chance that the rain ends as a few flurries in the foothills and Piedmont with no accumulation. A strong upper level disturbance along that cold front will pass through east Tennessee into Kentucky and West Virginia really enhancing the snowfall in those areas but just missing most of NW North Carolina to the north. If this disturbance tracks further south tomorrow then expect greater snow amounts but as of right now it looks to pass just north or the area. Either way, expect rapidly falling temperatures and snow covered road ways for most of the high country. Winds will gust over 45 mph in the mountains and near 30 mph in the Foothills and Piedmont.

Forecast Accumulations:
Beech Mountain, Rich Mountain, Snake Mountain: 3-5"
Western Side of Boone: 2-4"
Boone: 2"
Blowing Rock, Rutherwood, Deep Gap: Dusting-2"

Accumulation Map:

Over the weekend another area of low pressure looks to aim at the Carolina's. I do think the models are having a hard time picking up on this system but it still looks fairly weak, regardless this could be the first chance for area's outside of the mountains to see some snowfall. This would be for Sunday. I do expect this system to bring light accumulation to at least the mountains. Right now I do not expect any accumulations in the Foothills or Piedmont but I will keep you posted.

Sunday Map:

Updated: 1.11.12

8:15 pm

Updated NAM snowfall forecast

Updated: 1/10/11 
11:30 pm

This is the latest NAM update, it is showing a more robust arctic front with moderate accumulations of snow for Thursday night. Early indications are for 1-2" on the east, 2-4" around Boone and 4-5" near the Tennessee line.

(This is not my forecast map, I will put out my snowfall forecast map tomorrow, this is only one model and only one run, so don't get to excited yet, just wanted to show that this could put down a good bit of snow in just a few hours Thursday night):

Click the link below to view the MAP:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GSP

Pattern Change

Now that I have the GRE and my six wisdom teeth behind me, I am going to try to keep up with this blog a little better. 

Forecast Discussion: A developing low pressure will move from the western gulf coast states through our area tomorrow and be offshore the mid-Atlantic states tomorrow night. The forecast through tomorrow evening is pretty much set in stone. Rain, heavy at times will be the theme for late tonight through much of the day tomorrow. Most places will see a good 1-2" including the Piedmont, foothills and the mountains. The favored SE facing slopes along the blue-ridge could see as much as 2-3" of rain. The national weather service has issued a flood watch for all the mountain and foothills counties (link to view the flood watches by county: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gsp/. I do not think this is a wide spread flood event but if you live in flood prone areas be prepared for a few creeks and streams to approach or exceed bank-full. 

Rainfall forecast Map:

Beyond Wednesday night things get more interesting. A powerful cold front with semi-arctic air will be pushing into the area behind our rainstorm. The Front will be delayed by 18-24 hrs. Rain should push out sometime Wednesday evening and the cold front will move in after lunch on Thursday. I do expect to see some up-slope snow showers Thursday evening. Models disagree on how much moisture will be associated with this front. Some of the models show a very dynamic front with lightning, thunder and heavy snow squalls while others show a less enthusiastic approach with much colder temps and only light snow showers. Regardless it will be much colder and windy. Any snow that does fall will accumulate pretty easily so be prepared for some slick roads. Outside of the mountains sky's will clear but it will become increasingly windy and cold. Highs may not get out of the 30s on Friday in the foothills and only lower 40s on Saturday. By the weekend we could again be talking about the potential for more snow in the mountains. A low pressure will approach from the NW on Saturday and Sunday and depending on it's eventual track could bring another light snow event to the area. If this low tracks through our just south of North Carolina a few flurries or snow showers could sneak into the foothills an Piedmont.  

Pattern setting up for the weekend:

Overall the pattern is going to be turning much colder than what it has been. In reality it will probably be back to "normal" but because this winter has been so mild it will feel like a shock. I can tell you that their are signs pointing towards even colder and snowier weather as we head into February. This will definitely be a two sided winter. Something for the snow lovers to look forward too and for the warm enthusiast, well you've had your string of nice days now its our turn! :) Stay tuned for updates on our light snow events.

Updated: 1/10/12

8:00 pm

Snow Update:

Tuesday December 6, 2011

Basically the forecast remains unchanged. I will post a map of accumulations that I think are likely. This still has the potential to be a big snow event in the high country, especially in the higher elevations. I am seeing some forecast of 1-2" or 1-3", I personally think that is low but we will see. Regardless, temperatures will drop in a hurry tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. I am expecting the temperatures to drop into the mid-20s. The combination of heavy wet snow and runoff from all the rain tonight and tomorrow morning will cause serious ice to develop on area roadways underneath the snow. Travel late tomorrow night and early Thursday morning will be extremely hazardous. The terrible driving conditions will also be accompanied by winds gusting to 45mph and blowing snow by Thursday morning.

I expect the change over to occur earlier than I thought yesterday. Starting between 3-4 pm in the highest elevations and working it's way down to everyone else by evening. Snow should be falling in most places by 8pm and it will be Heavy for a while (big fat flakes).

Accumulation Map:

Specific Accumulations:
Mount Mitchell, Great Smoky Mountains: 6-12"
Beech, Sugar, Snake Mountain, Elk Knob, Rich Mountain: 4-6" isolated 8"
Banner Elk, Boone (where most people live): 3-5" isolated 6"
Foscoe, Valle Crucis: 1-3"
Northern Foothills (Caldwell and Wilkes Counties): no accumulation - very light dusting

Updated: 8:30 pm

Potential Major Snowstorm for the East Coast????

Monday December 5, 2011

Snow headed this way???
There is not a lot of talk from other meteorologist of the potential for significant snow. Not sure what they are waiting on but the models are being consistent in at least showing a little snow on the end of all the rain. Several of the major models are jumping on the idea that a potent wave of low pressure will develop along a slow moving front and bring significant snow to the high country. I think everyone will see rain from now through Wednesday. A change over to snow will begin in the highest elevations first (Wednesday evening) working it's way down to the Boone area over night and down towards the foothills by daybreak Thursday. This has the potential to be a Significant Snow for everyone above 2,000 ft. I think the cold air will initially have trouble getting over the mountains so the foothills will likely only see a brief change over to snow early Thursday morning limiting the accumulations off the mountain.

My first take on Accumulations *** Subject to change***
Mountains: 3-6"+
Foothills: Dusting-2"

This system is still out over the New Mexico region, once it breaks out into the southern plains the models will get a much better handle on what will happen. Tomorrow afternoons models will tell the story, stay tuned...

Updated: 10:20 pm

Back to being a Weather Nerd. Snowstorm potential for late week?

 December 4th, 2011


I am not going to say much on this just yet. Just want everyone to be aware that their is a potential snowstorm on the horizon from late Wednesday night through Friday morning. Several models are picking up on this potential but with various solutions. The GFS model forecasts the storm further north with rain to start for most places but ending with a 2-4 hour window of heavy snow in the mountains above 3,500 ft. The European model shows the storm further south (but weaker) bringing the rain snow line down to about interstate 40. If the euro is correct the mountains and northern foothills north of I-40 would see several inches of snow. At this point it is hard to determine which model is correct but I am tending to side with the GFS (for now). Stay tuned...

Map of Potential Snow:

Updated: 10:00 pm

Not as Much Rain as Expected But Still on for Snow

9 March 2011    9:00 PM


We dodged a bullet today. A large expansive complex of thunderstorms developed along the gulf coast robing us of the "potential" moisture. We see this happen sometimes in the winter with snowstorms. Models do a very bad job at forecasting this and its almost impossible to detect until you see how the complex is interacting with the front. So in this case most of the gulf moisture fed right into this complex of thunderstorms stopping it from being transported to our area. If this was a snowstorm I would have been very disappointed but since it kept us from having major flooding we should be thankful.

Regardless, we are not completely out of the woods. The front has not passed us yet, new low pressure is beginning to develop along it allowing thunderstorms and heavier rain to develop over night which could produce an additional 0.50-1.00". If you are caught under a thunderstorm or heavier shower some isolated flooding is still possible but wide spread flooding is no longer expected. At my station in Lenoir we received 1.33" of rain. Still a very decent rainfall but just under the 2.00" threshold needed for flooding and under the 2.00-4.00" that was forecast. Even with the additional rain, creeks and streams will have had time to drop before additional rain falls lowing the flood threat. I assume the national weather service will drop the flood watch sometime later on tonight.

Updated Snow Map:

Behind this front cold air will push it (colder than last weekend) allowing precipitation to change over to snow. Significant snow is looking likely, especially in the higher elevations near the Tennessee line.  

Timeline:
The change over will start first at the highest elevations. By 8:00 am the snow level should be around 5000 feet. (Snow will be falling on Beech, Top of Sugar, Grandfather, Elk Knob, Snake Mountain, etc...). The snow level should fall to 4000 feet by 10:00 am (Banner Elk, Howard's Knob, Rich Mountain etc...). By noon everyone above 3000 feet should be in the snow (most other places) and by mid-afternoon snow will likely be falling even on the valley floors above 2000 feet.

Accumulations during the day tomorrow will favor the high elevations. 3-6" with isolated 8" is forecast above 5000 feet near the Tennessee line. Most places will see 1-4" with snow falling much of the afternoon but accumulations being limited to Thursday evening and overnight Thursday. With a dusting to 1" expected in the valleys below 3000 feet and in the far eastern areas of the high county. This is a pretty dynamic upper low so it is possible that we see more snow than forecast. Especially in the higher elevations. Lower elevations will see heavy snow falling but because of warmer temperatures and ground temperatures, accumulations will be limited some.

Lastly, next week is looking very interested. I will not say the "s" word outside of the mountains just yet but some of the models are hinting at a late season winter storm for the southeast. I told everyone winter would come back in March.
Stay tuned!!!

Potentially Dangerous Storm Headed our Way.

8 March 2011

As precipitations moves in tonight, it could begin as a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The atmosphere is very dry right now so that will help cool the temperatures at the surface to near freezing. It is also possible that this precipitation never makes it to the surface because of that dry air and by the time the atmosphere moistens up enough it will be warm enough for rain. Just be prepare in the morning just in case.

The rest of the forecast from yesterday remains unchanged. Most of the mountains and foothills will see 2-4"of rain some places right along the blueridge may see isolated totals 4"+. This amount of rain along with wet soil conditions will cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as main rivers. Significant to possible Major flooding is likely. We will also need to watch for mudslides and debris flows as well.

The severe thunderstorm risk is low right now but there is an outside chance that we do get some storms to go severe, expecially tomorrow night just because the upper level dynamics moving in are so strong, it wont be all that warm and unstable.

And finally, I still think a significant snow event is possible above 4000 feet along the Tennessee line. 2-4" is the call above 4000 feet with isolated 5"+ above 5000 feet along the Tennessee line. Most of the region will see 1-2" with just a dusting below 3000 feet (east). This is a very dynamic storm so it is possible that we get some heavier burst of snow Thursday evening. If that happens more accumulation may occur at lower elevations cause the snow rate will overcome the melt rate from the warm ground.

Map of Snow Forecast:

Map of Rainfall Forecast: ( No change from yesterday)

Looking ahead, next week looks colder and the potential exist for some March snow. Stay tuned for updates on flooding and changes to the snow amounts.

Major Flood Event Looms... More Snow Possible Thursday Afternoon/Night.

7 March 2011
9:30 Pm

More Wild Weather is coming.

A strong storm system brough significant rain totals and even snow to the mountains this weekend, I am very concerned about the possibility of a stronger storm system with even more rain than this last one and more snow as well. Here is how it will play out...

Low Pressure will develop and move out of the Rocky's tomorrow. A Major severe weather event is likely in the lower Mississppi River valley. These storms well sweep through the south east Tuesday night and Wednesday. Severe weather should be limited to area's south of I-20 which is not anywhere near western North Carolina. As the front moves east it will slow down and a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the slowing front. This new low pressure will move right up the Appalachian Mountains enhancing precipitaiton totals. This is not set in stone yet, but 7 of the 8 major forecast models area now show this senario with tremendous rain totals.

Map Showing Developing Storm:

NAM model forecasted precipitation totals:

This is why I am very concern about the possibility of Major Flooding across the entire region. This model is showing  2-3.5 inches of rain over most of the region. Some of the other models are forecasting even higher rain totals.

Map showing rain totals across the region during the past storm:

Right along the Blue Ridge and the Adjacent Foothills recieved the most rain out of this past event with a genearl 2-4" with isolated 6-8" along the North Carolina/South Carolina Boarder south of Asheville. Rivers and Streams have receded but are still running high and grounds are still very saturated. It would only take rain amounts of 2" to produce significant flooding and most of the models are predicting 2-4" + of rain. If you live in flood prone areas please be prepared for flooding and flash flooding. Streams and creeks my rise rapidly.

My forecast map for the coming storm:

Flood and Flash Flood Watches will likely be issued tonight or sometime tomorrow. Also, I have not touched on this yet tonight but it is also looking likely that enough cold are my rush in behind the system to produce a period of significant accumulating snow (2-4"+) in elevations above 4000 or 4500 feet. Snow levels will lower to the Valley floors Thursday evening but only a dusting is expected due to warmer temperatures and warmer ground temperatures.

Tomorrow I will update on the potential for a major flood and on the prospects of snow. Please Stay tuned. This is looking like a dangerous storm for the mountains and foothills.

Wild Weather...

Sorry its been so long... I will try to do a more in depth blog this evening.

There are many reports coming in of some serious flooding and there are several road closures being reported across Watauga County. In Caldwell County I have not heard of any road closures yet but creeks and streams are right a bank-full and with another area of heavy rain moving in from the south it is only a matter of time before we begin to see flooding in the foothills as well. Flood Warnings are in affect for Watauga, Ashe, Alleghany, Surry and Wilkes Counties. A Flood Advisory has been issued for Burke, Caldwell, Alexander and Catawba Counties. Flash Flood Warnings are in affect for Henderson and Polk Counties (south of Asheville).

On top of that, the Mountains are now in a Winter Weather Advisory. I could see 2-4" + of snow above 3700 feet (Beech Mountain, Rich Mountain, Howard's Knob, Grandfather, App Ski, Sugar, Banner Elk...you get the idea) and 1-3" between 3000-3700 (most places, Boone, Blowing Rock etc...) and a dusting between 2000-3000 feet (Foscoe, Valle Cruis).

**It is possible the snow may come down extremely heavy during the early afternoon hours so do not be surprised if the roads become very treacherous. With a low 23-26 tonight it is likely with all the rain that we have  very icy roads plus snow on top. Please be prepared. **


Tonight I will discuss the mid-week storm. We may repeat this process with heavy rains and flooding ending as a period of heavy snow that again may accumulate several inches. I have been trying to bring home this point for a month now that winter would return the first to second week of march. It will be nothing like December and January but we will see some colder, snowier days the next few weeks.

Much Needed Rain and Major Severe Weather Outbreak for the Lower Mississippi Valley

Wednesday 2/23/2011 7:30 Pm

A strong low pressure system will move from Oklahoma to near New York City by Friday morning. This system will spawn the first Major Tornado Outbreak of the year. Right now it appears that NE Texas, E Oklahoma, Arkansas and W Tennessee are most at risk of distructive tornados. Tomorrow afternoon will be expecially dangerous. We will likely see 20-35 tornados and several of these could be EF3-EF5 wedge tornados at least a 1/2 mile in diameter. Their will be some snow and ice to the north of the system in central Missouri up to Chicago and northern Indiana. This will not be the main story tomorrow. The Severe Weather is what will be tomorrows headline. Only a coating - 3" of snow and ice are expected on the north side of this system.

Thursday night into Friday morning the storm system will move into the mid Atlantic. Heavy rains are forecasted in the Appalachians and along the coast with heavy snow developing over the interior northeast as the low pressure intensifies along the coast. Severe weather over night tomorrow will be limited to Tennessee and northern Alabama and should begin to weaking as the storm pushes into a wedge that has developed on east side of the mountains.

 Forecasted rainfall is posted in the map above. Heavier rain totals of over one half inch are forecasted in the mountains and adjacent foothills with a quarter to one half inch over the remaining foothills and piedmont areas. Again, due to the developing wedge I am not expecting any severe weather for the western Carolinas but a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question.

Forecast:

Mountains
Thursday- Cloudy conditions in the morning with light drizzle or a few showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 40-45, 38-40 near the blueridge. Expect a steady rain developing after midnight, possibly heavy at times. Low near 45. Rainfall over one half inch.

Friday- Rain in the morning will taper off around noon. Cloudy and breezy conditions will remain through most of the afternoon with a few breaks in the clouds towards evening. High near 50. Friday night clearing conditions and cool. Low near 30.

Foothills
Thursday- Some sun in the morning followed by increasing clouds through the day. High 53-58. Cloudy conditions in the evening, a steady rain developing after midnight. Rainfall near 0.25". Low near 45.

Friday- Rain in the morning tapering off around noon. Total rainfall 0.25 - 0.50". Clearing conditions in the afternoon and breezy. Highs near 55. Clear skys over night and much cooler. Low 32-35.

Piedmont
Thursday- Partly Cloudy in the morning with increasing clouds through the day. High 55-60. Cloudy conditions in the evening with a steady rain developing over night. Rainfall less then 0.25". Low 46-49.

Friday- Rain and some thunder in the morning. Clearing conditions in the afternoon and breezy. High near 55. Clear and cooler overnight. Low near 35.

Much Needed Rain on the Way!

9:30 Pm Tuesday 2/22/2011 Updated:

Much cooler air will continue to filter into the area tonight as a back door cold front works its way down the east side of the Appalachian Mountains. We had dramatic temperature differences across the Carolinas today. At one point I looked and saw current temperatures of 39 in Raleigh, 35 in Norfolk Virginia and 51 in Wilmington, 66 in Charlotte. That is a huge contrast in temperatures. Colder temperatures will over take the rest of the Carolinas tonight. This will set up a wedge along the blue ridge that will potentially save much of the western Carolinas from the threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes but not heavy rain. This will be the first significant rainfall in over a month. We need it!

Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Afternoon Map:

A strong low Pressure system will track from Oklahoma to Kentucky bringing snow along and north of the Ohio River and the threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes from eastern Oklahoma to Tennessee and Kentucky. This will be the first MAJOR severe weather outbreak of the season with large, violent, long tracked tornadoes capable of doing localized catastrophic damage. This is just the beginning of what will be a very active tornado season in the nations heartland.

Thursday - Friday Morning Map:

By Thursday afternoon the low pressure system should be advancing through the Ohio Valley and move offshore near New Jersey overnight. The severe threat should diminish significantly as the storm moves east into the cool wedge that has developed along the east side of the Appalachians. Still, a slight chance of severe thunderstorms is likely along and south of I-85 from Alabama to the Carolina Piedmont. Heavy, soaking rains will be common south of the track of the low pressure with heavy snows in interior New England.

Forecast:

Mountains
Wednesday- Mostly sunny in the morning followed by partly cloudy sky's in the afternoon. Cool. High 44-46. Increasing clouds at night with a few sprinkles or light rain developing towards daybreak. Low 33-35.

Thursday- Cloudy sky's with rain developing around lunch time. High 45-47, with 39-44 east, along the blue ridge. A steady, potentially heavy rain and some thunder developing overnight. Rainfall near 1.00". Temperatures rising overnight to near 50, with 46-48 east along the blue ridge.

Foothills
Wednesday- Partly cloudy, with much cooler temperatures. Highs 50-53. Increasing clouds at night with a few showers possible towards daybreak. Low 37-40.

Thursday- Cloudy in the morning with a steady rain developing in the afternoon. High 50-54. Heavy rain developing overnight with some thunder possible. Rainfall 0.50 - 1.00". Temperatures steady or rising to near 55.

Piedmont
Wednesday- Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 52-56. Increasing clouds at night. Low near 40.

Thursday- Cloudy conditions in the morning followed by a few showers in the afternoon. Highs 53-56. A steady rain developing over night with some thunder. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms along and south of I-85. Rainfall 0.25 - 0.75". Temperatures steady or rising to near 60 overnight.

Stormy Late Week... and Winter still to Return in March

10:00 Pm Update Sunday 2/20

Map (Pattern through the end of February)

Warm air will still be in place across much of the south and southeast through the end of the month. We will see one or two quick shots of cold behind frequent storms by passing us to the north. Most of the storms will track from the southwest (four corners region) to the Midwest and into the northeast. These storm systems will drag trailing fronts behind them across our region bringing briefly colder air before warmer winds advance in ahead of the next storm.

Until now, severe weather and tornado outbreaks have been mostly absent from the United States which is very unusual for a la nina winter. Like last year, I credit this to the extreme cold that has been present most of the winter. The cold weather has significantly cooled the Gulf of Mexico reducing evaporation which does not allow abundant moisture north to fuel severe weather. The recent warming trend is beginning to heat up the Gulf and from the looks at modeling and atmospheric dynamics, our first Major Severe Weather Outbreak is possible by the end of the week. A major storm system is expected to develop Friday morning and track into the eastern Great Lakes and northeast. It will likely bring blizzard conditions to the north of the path and severe weather along the trailing front. It is still too early to tell if the right dynamics will follow the storm into the Carolinas and bring with it severe weather, but much needed heavy rains are looking likely. Right now I think the best chance of severe thunderstorms should stay to the west of the region over the Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee Valley.

Map of Late Week Storm:

I have been talking about the possibility of Winter trying to return to the south in March for over a week now. Global temperatures are going to be plummeting over the next 10 days. In fact right now the average global temperature is approximately .01 deg Celsius below normal. Ten days from now, ensemble models predict global temperatures will fall to .4 deg Celsius below normal. I know that doesn't seem like a lot, but we are talking about average temperatures across the entire GLOBE. This is significant cooling. Anyways, with so much cold air around the earth I am concerned that it may get worked into the pattern across the United States and push the warmth back south. Several of the numerical models are beginning to show my idea that cold will return. I can not predict any specific snows and it is hard to get snow outside of the mountains in march but if this does work out and much colder air returns with moisture on the increase, it will be possible to see more snow across the Carolinas. Models are currently showing this cold returning the first week of march but it will probably be closer to the second week. Don't get your gardens and flowers planted yet! Stay Tuned.

Forecast:

Mountains-
Monday: A few clouds, more sun than Sunday and much warmer. Increasing clouds at night. Highs in the lower 60s. Low in the upper 30s.

Tuesday: A few showers will be possible from in the morning followed by a few flurries. A front will move through early. Much cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 30s to around 40. Lows in the mid to upper 20s.

Foothills and Piedmont-
Monday: Abundant sunshine with very warm temperatures. Increasing clouds at night. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows in the upper 40s.

Tuesday: Cloudy conditions with a few early sprinkles followed by clearing skies, much cooler by the afternoon. No significant precipitation. Highs in the mid 50s. Lows in the low to mid 30s.

Much Above Normal Temperatures Through Friday!

10:30 pm Tuesday

A steady climb to much above normal temperatures by Friday. No significant precipitation expected for the next 7 days. (Maybe a few showers in the mountains Saturday morning but shouldn't be much)

Forecast:

Mountains-

After a chilly Tuesday, temperatures will begin to rebound on Wednesday. The rest of the week will be dominated by Sunshine, lighter winds, dry conditions and increasingly warm temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be in the middle to upper 50s. Thursdays high could approach 60 and by Friday we should get most everyone in the low 60s. Now that is a forecast most of you will like to read! Nights will remain cold, especially in the valleys with temperatures dropping into the 20s and 30s. A somewhat dry front will pass through on Saturday but only a few showers are expected. Next week looks like it could turn stormy with some much needed rain. Stay tuned!

Foothills and Piedmont-

Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 60s tomorrow with abundant sunshine. Thursday will see temperatures in the upper 60s in the Foothills to around 70 in the Piedmont. By Friday everyone should hit the 70 degree mark with some places in the Piedmont reaching into the low to mid 70s (Near record levels). Drought conditions will be worsening over the next 7 days with no significant precipitation in the future. A dry front will push through Saturday ushering in some cooler air but it may be the middle to end of next week before we see any rain. Stay tuned!

*** Recent satellite measurements are revealing that our current "strong" La Nina is beginning to weaken and some long range ensemble models are forecasting neutral conditions over the tropical pacific by summer. What does that mean for our weather? Well during a la nina, waters in the tropical pacific cool, causing a strong ridge of High Pressure (the Bermuda high) to wedge into the southeastern states sending the storm track north across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This leaves Western North Carolina mild and dry in the winter and Hot and Dry during the summer. If it had not been for that very negative North Atlantic Oscillation our winter would have been very different. This winter would have been much milder and snow less.

Anyways, by summer we should be near neutral as far as water temperatures in the tropical pacific ending our current dry period. We should see normal temperatures and normal precipitation over the summer. Non of the models are currently forecasting el nino to develop but we will have to keep an eye on that. ***

Here is a current image of the la nina conditions in the eastern tropical pacific. In november water temperatures were as much as -1.5 or 1.5 degrees (c) cooler than normal (not shown in Map). As of February 15 temperatures are between -1.0 and 1.0 (near the coast of South American). The waters are warming!

Both images are of February 15th showing the warming of the Pacific indicating the weakening of la nina.