Tornado's? Two Light Snow Events Coming...

Today turned out mostly as expected. Rain fell most of the day, heavy at times. Officially here at my weather station we picked up 1.42" of rain which was right in the middle of the 1-2" forecast.I am sure there were some totals between 2-3" along the blue ridge. I did not see the severe weather coming that we had this evening. A possible tornado occurred (which I labeled in red on the snow-map) in the foothill causing significant structure damage to some areas. At one point several people were trapped in their basement after their home collapsed and several injuries have been report from a mobile home being overturned. Based on the reports I have heard I do think this will be a confirmed tornado and probably be rated an EF-2 (winds 111-135 mph). Temperatures were in the 40s and some low 50s which usually is not warm enough to support severe weather but the upper level dynamics rotated right across the area creating very unstable conditions right around sunset leading to our mini-severe weather outbreak. Some of these thunderstorms contained hail, vivid lightning and cloud tops that extended over 30,000ft high. These types of thunderstorms are usually observed in the spring and summer around here.

Forecast Discussion:
Tomorrow could be another wild day but much more winter like. Fog will give way to mostly/partly cloudy conditions by noon for most of the area. A strong low pressure area over the great lakes will drag a strong cold front through the region Thursday night with strong winds, more rain/thunderstorms changing quickly to snow showers/few snow squalls in the mountains. A small chance that the rain ends as a few flurries in the foothills and Piedmont with no accumulation. A strong upper level disturbance along that cold front will pass through east Tennessee into Kentucky and West Virginia really enhancing the snowfall in those areas but just missing most of NW North Carolina to the north. If this disturbance tracks further south tomorrow then expect greater snow amounts but as of right now it looks to pass just north or the area. Either way, expect rapidly falling temperatures and snow covered road ways for most of the high country. Winds will gust over 45 mph in the mountains and near 30 mph in the Foothills and Piedmont.

Forecast Accumulations:
Beech Mountain, Rich Mountain, Snake Mountain: 3-5"
Western Side of Boone: 2-4"
Boone: 2"
Blowing Rock, Rutherwood, Deep Gap: Dusting-2"

Accumulation Map:

Over the weekend another area of low pressure looks to aim at the Carolina's. I do think the models are having a hard time picking up on this system but it still looks fairly weak, regardless this could be the first chance for area's outside of the mountains to see some snowfall. This would be for Sunday. I do expect this system to bring light accumulation to at least the mountains. Right now I do not expect any accumulations in the Foothills or Piedmont but I will keep you posted.

Sunday Map:

Updated: 1.11.12

8:15 pm