Much Needed Rain and Major Severe Weather Outbreak for the Lower Mississippi Valley

Wednesday 2/23/2011 7:30 Pm

A strong low pressure system will move from Oklahoma to near New York City by Friday morning. This system will spawn the first Major Tornado Outbreak of the year. Right now it appears that NE Texas, E Oklahoma, Arkansas and W Tennessee are most at risk of distructive tornados. Tomorrow afternoon will be expecially dangerous. We will likely see 20-35 tornados and several of these could be EF3-EF5 wedge tornados at least a 1/2 mile in diameter. Their will be some snow and ice to the north of the system in central Missouri up to Chicago and northern Indiana. This will not be the main story tomorrow. The Severe Weather is what will be tomorrows headline. Only a coating - 3" of snow and ice are expected on the north side of this system.

Thursday night into Friday morning the storm system will move into the mid Atlantic. Heavy rains are forecasted in the Appalachians and along the coast with heavy snow developing over the interior northeast as the low pressure intensifies along the coast. Severe weather over night tomorrow will be limited to Tennessee and northern Alabama and should begin to weaking as the storm pushes into a wedge that has developed on east side of the mountains.

 Forecasted rainfall is posted in the map above. Heavier rain totals of over one half inch are forecasted in the mountains and adjacent foothills with a quarter to one half inch over the remaining foothills and piedmont areas. Again, due to the developing wedge I am not expecting any severe weather for the western Carolinas but a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question.

Forecast:

Mountains
Thursday- Cloudy conditions in the morning with light drizzle or a few showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 40-45, 38-40 near the blueridge. Expect a steady rain developing after midnight, possibly heavy at times. Low near 45. Rainfall over one half inch.

Friday- Rain in the morning will taper off around noon. Cloudy and breezy conditions will remain through most of the afternoon with a few breaks in the clouds towards evening. High near 50. Friday night clearing conditions and cool. Low near 30.

Foothills
Thursday- Some sun in the morning followed by increasing clouds through the day. High 53-58. Cloudy conditions in the evening, a steady rain developing after midnight. Rainfall near 0.25". Low near 45.

Friday- Rain in the morning tapering off around noon. Total rainfall 0.25 - 0.50". Clearing conditions in the afternoon and breezy. Highs near 55. Clear skys over night and much cooler. Low 32-35.

Piedmont
Thursday- Partly Cloudy in the morning with increasing clouds through the day. High 55-60. Cloudy conditions in the evening with a steady rain developing over night. Rainfall less then 0.25". Low 46-49.

Friday- Rain and some thunder in the morning. Clearing conditions in the afternoon and breezy. High near 55. Clear and cooler overnight. Low near 35.