One Last Tropical System and Then A Cold Start to November

Most of this week will be an easy forecast. Temperatures will be about 4-6 degrees above normal and abundant sunshine.

Here is the latest image from the National Hurricane Center:

They are giving the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean a High (70%) chance of tropical storm formation in the next 48 hours. This system should become a named storm by Tuesday (Tropical Storm Sandy) and be in the southern Bahamas by Wednesday. After that things get a little bit interesting. A strong trough will be diving out of western Canada towards the southeast. The most likely scenario would be for soon to be Sandy to get picked up and recurved out to sea. Sandy is likely to become a minimal hurricane as she passes off shore of the southeast United States. Below is the Map I created this morning in regard to what I am currently thinking. The red points are my actual forecast position and intensity of soon to be Sandy. The yellow cone represents the possible scenarios. 

The less likely scenario would be for the trough to phase with Sandy and actually pull the storm into the Mid-Atlantic States. I am calling this scenario the Hazel idea. In 1954 Hurricane Hazel developed south of the Dominican Republic and was pulled NE across the island before it was captured by a trough coming southeast. Hazel phased with this trough which not only caused a NW motion but also intensified the storm. Hazel made landfall on the North Carolina/South Carolina border on the morning of October 15th 1954 as a category 4 hurricane.

 This scenario is not my current forecast but is not that far fetched of an Idea. Right now I give this scenario a 20% chance of occurring. 

Regardless, high waves and strong rip currents will be possible by late week for most of the east coast. and after the trough moves in from Canada very cold air for this time of year will be in place. There is a good chance that the first snow flakes of the year will be flying across the North Carolina mountains by next Sunday or Monday (just flurries or snow showers). I will post more on the cold coming later.

updated: 10/21/12 at 9:07 am