As precipitations moves in tonight, it could begin as a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The atmosphere is very dry right now so that will help cool the temperatures at the surface to near freezing. It is also possible that this precipitation never makes it to the surface because of that dry air and by the time the atmosphere moistens up enough it will be warm enough for rain. Just be prepare in the morning just in case.
The rest of the forecast from yesterday remains unchanged. Most of the mountains and foothills will see 2-4"of rain some places right along the blueridge may see isolated totals 4"+. This amount of rain along with wet soil conditions will cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as main rivers. Significant to possible Major flooding is likely. We will also need to watch for mudslides and debris flows as well.
The severe thunderstorm risk is low right now but there is an outside chance that we do get some storms to go severe, expecially tomorrow night just because the upper level dynamics moving in are so strong, it wont be all that warm and unstable.
And finally, I still think a significant snow event is possible above 4000 feet along the Tennessee line. 2-4" is the call above 4000 feet with isolated 5"+ above 5000 feet along the Tennessee line. Most of the region will see 1-2" with just a dusting below 3000 feet (east). This is a very dynamic storm so it is possible that we get some heavier burst of snow Thursday evening. If that happens more accumulation may occur at lower elevations cause the snow rate will overcome the melt rate from the warm ground.
Map of Snow Forecast:
Map of Rainfall Forecast: ( No change from yesterday)
Looking ahead, next week looks colder and the potential exist for some March snow. Stay tuned for updates on flooding and changes to the snow amounts.
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