Not as Much Rain as Expected But Still on for Snow

9 March 2011    9:00 PM


We dodged a bullet today. A large expansive complex of thunderstorms developed along the gulf coast robing us of the "potential" moisture. We see this happen sometimes in the winter with snowstorms. Models do a very bad job at forecasting this and its almost impossible to detect until you see how the complex is interacting with the front. So in this case most of the gulf moisture fed right into this complex of thunderstorms stopping it from being transported to our area. If this was a snowstorm I would have been very disappointed but since it kept us from having major flooding we should be thankful.

Regardless, we are not completely out of the woods. The front has not passed us yet, new low pressure is beginning to develop along it allowing thunderstorms and heavier rain to develop over night which could produce an additional 0.50-1.00". If you are caught under a thunderstorm or heavier shower some isolated flooding is still possible but wide spread flooding is no longer expected. At my station in Lenoir we received 1.33" of rain. Still a very decent rainfall but just under the 2.00" threshold needed for flooding and under the 2.00-4.00" that was forecast. Even with the additional rain, creeks and streams will have had time to drop before additional rain falls lowing the flood threat. I assume the national weather service will drop the flood watch sometime later on tonight.

Updated Snow Map:

Behind this front cold air will push it (colder than last weekend) allowing precipitation to change over to snow. Significant snow is looking likely, especially in the higher elevations near the Tennessee line.  

Timeline:
The change over will start first at the highest elevations. By 8:00 am the snow level should be around 5000 feet. (Snow will be falling on Beech, Top of Sugar, Grandfather, Elk Knob, Snake Mountain, etc...). The snow level should fall to 4000 feet by 10:00 am (Banner Elk, Howard's Knob, Rich Mountain etc...). By noon everyone above 3000 feet should be in the snow (most other places) and by mid-afternoon snow will likely be falling even on the valley floors above 2000 feet.

Accumulations during the day tomorrow will favor the high elevations. 3-6" with isolated 8" is forecast above 5000 feet near the Tennessee line. Most places will see 1-4" with snow falling much of the afternoon but accumulations being limited to Thursday evening and overnight Thursday. With a dusting to 1" expected in the valleys below 3000 feet and in the far eastern areas of the high county. This is a pretty dynamic upper low so it is possible that we see more snow than forecast. Especially in the higher elevations. Lower elevations will see heavy snow falling but because of warmer temperatures and ground temperatures, accumulations will be limited some.

Lastly, next week is looking very interested. I will not say the "s" word outside of the mountains just yet but some of the models are hinting at a late season winter storm for the southeast. I told everyone winter would come back in March.
Stay tuned!!!