Forecast Discussion: A developing low pressure will move from the western gulf coast states through our area tomorrow and be offshore the mid-Atlantic states tomorrow night. The forecast through tomorrow evening is pretty much set in stone. Rain, heavy at times will be the theme for late tonight through much of the day tomorrow. Most places will see a good 1-2" including the Piedmont, foothills and the mountains. The favored SE facing slopes along the blue-ridge could see as much as 2-3" of rain. The national weather service has issued a flood watch for all the mountain and foothills counties (link to view the flood watches by county: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gsp/. I do not think this is a wide spread flood event but if you live in flood prone areas be prepared for a few creeks and streams to approach or exceed bank-full.
Rainfall forecast Map:
Beyond Wednesday night things get more interesting. A powerful cold front with semi-arctic air will be pushing into the area behind our rainstorm. The Front will be delayed by 18-24 hrs. Rain should push out sometime Wednesday evening and the cold front will move in after lunch on Thursday. I do expect to see some up-slope snow showers Thursday evening. Models disagree on how much moisture will be associated with this front. Some of the models show a very dynamic front with lightning, thunder and heavy snow squalls while others show a less enthusiastic approach with much colder temps and only light snow showers. Regardless it will be much colder and windy. Any snow that does fall will accumulate pretty easily so be prepared for some slick roads. Outside of the mountains sky's will clear but it will become increasingly windy and cold. Highs may not get out of the 30s on Friday in the foothills and only lower 40s on Saturday. By the weekend we could again be talking about the potential for more snow in the mountains. A low pressure will approach from the NW on Saturday and Sunday and depending on it's eventual track could bring another light snow event to the area. If this low tracks through our just south of North Carolina a few flurries or snow showers could sneak into the foothills an Piedmont.
Pattern setting up for the weekend:
Overall the pattern is going to be turning much colder than what it has been. In reality it will probably be back to "normal" but because this winter has been so mild it will feel like a shock. I can tell you that their are signs pointing towards even colder and snowier weather as we head into February. This will definitely be a two sided winter. Something for the snow lovers to look forward too and for the warm enthusiast, well you've had your string of nice days now its our turn! :) Stay tuned for updates on our light snow events.
Updated: 1/10/12
8:00 pm
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