Map (Pattern through the end of February)
Warm air will still be in place across much of the south and southeast through the end of the month. We will see one or two quick shots of cold behind frequent storms by passing us to the north. Most of the storms will track from the southwest (four corners region) to the Midwest and into the northeast. These storm systems will drag trailing fronts behind them across our region bringing briefly colder air before warmer winds advance in ahead of the next storm.
Until now, severe weather and tornado outbreaks have been mostly absent from the United States which is very unusual for a la nina winter. Like last year, I credit this to the extreme cold that has been present most of the winter. The cold weather has significantly cooled the Gulf of Mexico reducing evaporation which does not allow abundant moisture north to fuel severe weather. The recent warming trend is beginning to heat up the Gulf and from the looks at modeling and atmospheric dynamics, our first Major Severe Weather Outbreak is possible by the end of the week. A major storm system is expected to develop Friday morning and track into the eastern Great Lakes and northeast. It will likely bring blizzard conditions to the north of the path and severe weather along the trailing front. It is still too early to tell if the right dynamics will follow the storm into the Carolinas and bring with it severe weather, but much needed heavy rains are looking likely. Right now I think the best chance of severe thunderstorms should stay to the west of the region over the Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee Valley.
Map of Late Week Storm:
I have been talking about the possibility of Winter trying to return to the south in March for over a week now. Global temperatures are going to be plummeting over the next 10 days. In fact right now the average global temperature is approximately .01 deg Celsius below normal. Ten days from now, ensemble models predict global temperatures will fall to .4 deg Celsius below normal. I know that doesn't seem like a lot, but we are talking about average temperatures across the entire GLOBE. This is significant cooling. Anyways, with so much cold air around the earth I am concerned that it may get worked into the pattern across the United States and push the warmth back south. Several of the numerical models are beginning to show my idea that cold will return. I can not predict any specific snows and it is hard to get snow outside of the mountains in march but if this does work out and much colder air returns with moisture on the increase, it will be possible to see more snow across the Carolinas. Models are currently showing this cold returning the first week of march but it will probably be closer to the second week. Don't get your gardens and flowers planted yet! Stay Tuned.
Forecast:
Mountains-
Monday: A few clouds, more sun than Sunday and much warmer. Increasing clouds at night. Highs in the lower 60s. Low in the upper 30s.
Tuesday: A few showers will be possible from in the morning followed by a few flurries. A front will move through early. Much cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 30s to around 40. Lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Foothills and Piedmont-
Monday: Abundant sunshine with very warm temperatures. Increasing clouds at night. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows in the upper 40s.
Tuesday: Cloudy conditions with a few early sprinkles followed by clearing skies, much cooler by the afternoon. No significant precipitation. Highs in the mid 50s. Lows in the low to mid 30s.
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