Major Flood Event Looms... More Snow Possible Thursday Afternoon/Night.

7 March 2011
9:30 Pm

More Wild Weather is coming.

A strong storm system brough significant rain totals and even snow to the mountains this weekend, I am very concerned about the possibility of a stronger storm system with even more rain than this last one and more snow as well. Here is how it will play out...

Low Pressure will develop and move out of the Rocky's tomorrow. A Major severe weather event is likely in the lower Mississppi River valley. These storms well sweep through the south east Tuesday night and Wednesday. Severe weather should be limited to area's south of I-20 which is not anywhere near western North Carolina. As the front moves east it will slow down and a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the slowing front. This new low pressure will move right up the Appalachian Mountains enhancing precipitaiton totals. This is not set in stone yet, but 7 of the 8 major forecast models area now show this senario with tremendous rain totals.

Map Showing Developing Storm:

NAM model forecasted precipitation totals:

This is why I am very concern about the possibility of Major Flooding across the entire region. This model is showing  2-3.5 inches of rain over most of the region. Some of the other models are forecasting even higher rain totals.

Map showing rain totals across the region during the past storm:

Right along the Blue Ridge and the Adjacent Foothills recieved the most rain out of this past event with a genearl 2-4" with isolated 6-8" along the North Carolina/South Carolina Boarder south of Asheville. Rivers and Streams have receded but are still running high and grounds are still very saturated. It would only take rain amounts of 2" to produce significant flooding and most of the models are predicting 2-4" + of rain. If you live in flood prone areas please be prepared for flooding and flash flooding. Streams and creeks my rise rapidly.

My forecast map for the coming storm:

Flood and Flash Flood Watches will likely be issued tonight or sometime tomorrow. Also, I have not touched on this yet tonight but it is also looking likely that enough cold are my rush in behind the system to produce a period of significant accumulating snow (2-4"+) in elevations above 4000 or 4500 feet. Snow levels will lower to the Valley floors Thursday evening but only a dusting is expected due to warmer temperatures and warmer ground temperatures.

Tomorrow I will update on the potential for a major flood and on the prospects of snow. Please Stay tuned. This is looking like a dangerous storm for the mountains and foothills.