Yesterday I talked about the possibility of soon to be Sandy phasing with the strong trough that is coming down out of NW Canada, this scenario is actually looking more likely and is now the most likely solution which will create a massive "Hybrid Super-storm" over the mid-atlantic and northeast United States.
The blue track (1) is the track that will phase Sandy with the strong trough diving to the southeast. I give this solution a 1 in 2 or 50% chance of occurring today. This will cause a huge storm of historic proportions for the northeast and mid-atlantic with over hurricane force winds on the coast, large storm surge and flooding rains. It will also cause Blizzard conditions and several feet of snow over the interior mountains to the southwest of the track. Places such as PA, WVa, OH NY and into MI could be in line for major snows.
The purple track (2) I give a 35% chance of occurring, where the low level center of Sandy continues to the northeast and does not phase with the trough but some of Sandy's energy and heat gets transferred into the trough and still creates a larger storm but probably not a historic storm. This track still would have strong winds and beach erosion on the coast and heavy interior snows but not to the magnitude of track one.
The red track (3) I give a 15% chance of occurring. This is the least likely scenario. In fact the only model showing this track is the GFS and it notoriously has trouble flattening out the trough and spreading the energy out instead of bundling it. This track would lead to no storm, keeping Sandy and the trough completely separate. The east would still get cold and lake effect snows would still fly but no significant storm.
Here is my forecast track and intensity of Sandy through the rest of the week, keep in mind after this time is when the phasing and significant storm over the northeast will occur.
I will have more on what will happen with Sandy and the potential "super-storm" later this week.
Below is the image of the European model with Hurricane/Nor'easter Sandy at peak intensity of 928 mb. Keep in mind Katrina was 920 at her first landfall in Louisiana and Hurricane Andrew was 922 mb. So this is a very intense storm making landfall in New England.
(model image courtesy of weather-bell analytics and weatherbell.com)
Regardless of the outcome, much colder air will dive into the east late in the weekend and next week and will likely still bring the seasons first snow flakes (flurries and light snow showers) to the North Carolina high country. Even if a massive storm occurs it should be far enough to the north and east that the high country escapes a crippling snow event.
Stay tuned for updates... Kris
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