Snow Update:

Tuesday December 6, 2011

Basically the forecast remains unchanged. I will post a map of accumulations that I think are likely. This still has the potential to be a big snow event in the high country, especially in the higher elevations. I am seeing some forecast of 1-2" or 1-3", I personally think that is low but we will see. Regardless, temperatures will drop in a hurry tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. I am expecting the temperatures to drop into the mid-20s. The combination of heavy wet snow and runoff from all the rain tonight and tomorrow morning will cause serious ice to develop on area roadways underneath the snow. Travel late tomorrow night and early Thursday morning will be extremely hazardous. The terrible driving conditions will also be accompanied by winds gusting to 45mph and blowing snow by Thursday morning.

I expect the change over to occur earlier than I thought yesterday. Starting between 3-4 pm in the highest elevations and working it's way down to everyone else by evening. Snow should be falling in most places by 8pm and it will be Heavy for a while (big fat flakes).

Accumulation Map:

Specific Accumulations:
Mount Mitchell, Great Smoky Mountains: 6-12"
Beech, Sugar, Snake Mountain, Elk Knob, Rich Mountain: 4-6" isolated 8"
Banner Elk, Boone (where most people live): 3-5" isolated 6"
Foscoe, Valle Crucis: 1-3"
Northern Foothills (Caldwell and Wilkes Counties): no accumulation - very light dusting

Updated: 8:30 pm

Potential Major Snowstorm for the East Coast????

Monday December 5, 2011

Snow headed this way???
There is not a lot of talk from other meteorologist of the potential for significant snow. Not sure what they are waiting on but the models are being consistent in at least showing a little snow on the end of all the rain. Several of the major models are jumping on the idea that a potent wave of low pressure will develop along a slow moving front and bring significant snow to the high country. I think everyone will see rain from now through Wednesday. A change over to snow will begin in the highest elevations first (Wednesday evening) working it's way down to the Boone area over night and down towards the foothills by daybreak Thursday. This has the potential to be a Significant Snow for everyone above 2,000 ft. I think the cold air will initially have trouble getting over the mountains so the foothills will likely only see a brief change over to snow early Thursday morning limiting the accumulations off the mountain.

My first take on Accumulations *** Subject to change***
Mountains: 3-6"+
Foothills: Dusting-2"

This system is still out over the New Mexico region, once it breaks out into the southern plains the models will get a much better handle on what will happen. Tomorrow afternoons models will tell the story, stay tuned...

Updated: 10:20 pm

Back to being a Weather Nerd. Snowstorm potential for late week?

 December 4th, 2011


I am not going to say much on this just yet. Just want everyone to be aware that their is a potential snowstorm on the horizon from late Wednesday night through Friday morning. Several models are picking up on this potential but with various solutions. The GFS model forecasts the storm further north with rain to start for most places but ending with a 2-4 hour window of heavy snow in the mountains above 3,500 ft. The European model shows the storm further south (but weaker) bringing the rain snow line down to about interstate 40. If the euro is correct the mountains and northern foothills north of I-40 would see several inches of snow. At this point it is hard to determine which model is correct but I am tending to side with the GFS (for now). Stay tuned...

Map of Potential Snow:

Updated: 10:00 pm

Not as Much Rain as Expected But Still on for Snow

9 March 2011    9:00 PM


We dodged a bullet today. A large expansive complex of thunderstorms developed along the gulf coast robing us of the "potential" moisture. We see this happen sometimes in the winter with snowstorms. Models do a very bad job at forecasting this and its almost impossible to detect until you see how the complex is interacting with the front. So in this case most of the gulf moisture fed right into this complex of thunderstorms stopping it from being transported to our area. If this was a snowstorm I would have been very disappointed but since it kept us from having major flooding we should be thankful.

Regardless, we are not completely out of the woods. The front has not passed us yet, new low pressure is beginning to develop along it allowing thunderstorms and heavier rain to develop over night which could produce an additional 0.50-1.00". If you are caught under a thunderstorm or heavier shower some isolated flooding is still possible but wide spread flooding is no longer expected. At my station in Lenoir we received 1.33" of rain. Still a very decent rainfall but just under the 2.00" threshold needed for flooding and under the 2.00-4.00" that was forecast. Even with the additional rain, creeks and streams will have had time to drop before additional rain falls lowing the flood threat. I assume the national weather service will drop the flood watch sometime later on tonight.

Updated Snow Map:

Behind this front cold air will push it (colder than last weekend) allowing precipitation to change over to snow. Significant snow is looking likely, especially in the higher elevations near the Tennessee line.  

Timeline:
The change over will start first at the highest elevations. By 8:00 am the snow level should be around 5000 feet. (Snow will be falling on Beech, Top of Sugar, Grandfather, Elk Knob, Snake Mountain, etc...). The snow level should fall to 4000 feet by 10:00 am (Banner Elk, Howard's Knob, Rich Mountain etc...). By noon everyone above 3000 feet should be in the snow (most other places) and by mid-afternoon snow will likely be falling even on the valley floors above 2000 feet.

Accumulations during the day tomorrow will favor the high elevations. 3-6" with isolated 8" is forecast above 5000 feet near the Tennessee line. Most places will see 1-4" with snow falling much of the afternoon but accumulations being limited to Thursday evening and overnight Thursday. With a dusting to 1" expected in the valleys below 3000 feet and in the far eastern areas of the high county. This is a pretty dynamic upper low so it is possible that we see more snow than forecast. Especially in the higher elevations. Lower elevations will see heavy snow falling but because of warmer temperatures and ground temperatures, accumulations will be limited some.

Lastly, next week is looking very interested. I will not say the "s" word outside of the mountains just yet but some of the models are hinting at a late season winter storm for the southeast. I told everyone winter would come back in March.
Stay tuned!!!

Potentially Dangerous Storm Headed our Way.

8 March 2011

As precipitations moves in tonight, it could begin as a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The atmosphere is very dry right now so that will help cool the temperatures at the surface to near freezing. It is also possible that this precipitation never makes it to the surface because of that dry air and by the time the atmosphere moistens up enough it will be warm enough for rain. Just be prepare in the morning just in case.

The rest of the forecast from yesterday remains unchanged. Most of the mountains and foothills will see 2-4"of rain some places right along the blueridge may see isolated totals 4"+. This amount of rain along with wet soil conditions will cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as main rivers. Significant to possible Major flooding is likely. We will also need to watch for mudslides and debris flows as well.

The severe thunderstorm risk is low right now but there is an outside chance that we do get some storms to go severe, expecially tomorrow night just because the upper level dynamics moving in are so strong, it wont be all that warm and unstable.

And finally, I still think a significant snow event is possible above 4000 feet along the Tennessee line. 2-4" is the call above 4000 feet with isolated 5"+ above 5000 feet along the Tennessee line. Most of the region will see 1-2" with just a dusting below 3000 feet (east). This is a very dynamic storm so it is possible that we get some heavier burst of snow Thursday evening. If that happens more accumulation may occur at lower elevations cause the snow rate will overcome the melt rate from the warm ground.

Map of Snow Forecast:

Map of Rainfall Forecast: ( No change from yesterday)

Looking ahead, next week looks colder and the potential exist for some March snow. Stay tuned for updates on flooding and changes to the snow amounts.

Major Flood Event Looms... More Snow Possible Thursday Afternoon/Night.

7 March 2011
9:30 Pm

More Wild Weather is coming.

A strong storm system brough significant rain totals and even snow to the mountains this weekend, I am very concerned about the possibility of a stronger storm system with even more rain than this last one and more snow as well. Here is how it will play out...

Low Pressure will develop and move out of the Rocky's tomorrow. A Major severe weather event is likely in the lower Mississppi River valley. These storms well sweep through the south east Tuesday night and Wednesday. Severe weather should be limited to area's south of I-20 which is not anywhere near western North Carolina. As the front moves east it will slow down and a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the slowing front. This new low pressure will move right up the Appalachian Mountains enhancing precipitaiton totals. This is not set in stone yet, but 7 of the 8 major forecast models area now show this senario with tremendous rain totals.

Map Showing Developing Storm:

NAM model forecasted precipitation totals:

This is why I am very concern about the possibility of Major Flooding across the entire region. This model is showing  2-3.5 inches of rain over most of the region. Some of the other models are forecasting even higher rain totals.

Map showing rain totals across the region during the past storm:

Right along the Blue Ridge and the Adjacent Foothills recieved the most rain out of this past event with a genearl 2-4" with isolated 6-8" along the North Carolina/South Carolina Boarder south of Asheville. Rivers and Streams have receded but are still running high and grounds are still very saturated. It would only take rain amounts of 2" to produce significant flooding and most of the models are predicting 2-4" + of rain. If you live in flood prone areas please be prepared for flooding and flash flooding. Streams and creeks my rise rapidly.

My forecast map for the coming storm:

Flood and Flash Flood Watches will likely be issued tonight or sometime tomorrow. Also, I have not touched on this yet tonight but it is also looking likely that enough cold are my rush in behind the system to produce a period of significant accumulating snow (2-4"+) in elevations above 4000 or 4500 feet. Snow levels will lower to the Valley floors Thursday evening but only a dusting is expected due to warmer temperatures and warmer ground temperatures.

Tomorrow I will update on the potential for a major flood and on the prospects of snow. Please Stay tuned. This is looking like a dangerous storm for the mountains and foothills.

Wild Weather...

Sorry its been so long... I will try to do a more in depth blog this evening.

There are many reports coming in of some serious flooding and there are several road closures being reported across Watauga County. In Caldwell County I have not heard of any road closures yet but creeks and streams are right a bank-full and with another area of heavy rain moving in from the south it is only a matter of time before we begin to see flooding in the foothills as well. Flood Warnings are in affect for Watauga, Ashe, Alleghany, Surry and Wilkes Counties. A Flood Advisory has been issued for Burke, Caldwell, Alexander and Catawba Counties. Flash Flood Warnings are in affect for Henderson and Polk Counties (south of Asheville).

On top of that, the Mountains are now in a Winter Weather Advisory. I could see 2-4" + of snow above 3700 feet (Beech Mountain, Rich Mountain, Howard's Knob, Grandfather, App Ski, Sugar, Banner Elk...you get the idea) and 1-3" between 3000-3700 (most places, Boone, Blowing Rock etc...) and a dusting between 2000-3000 feet (Foscoe, Valle Cruis).

**It is possible the snow may come down extremely heavy during the early afternoon hours so do not be surprised if the roads become very treacherous. With a low 23-26 tonight it is likely with all the rain that we have  very icy roads plus snow on top. Please be prepared. **


Tonight I will discuss the mid-week storm. We may repeat this process with heavy rains and flooding ending as a period of heavy snow that again may accumulate several inches. I have been trying to bring home this point for a month now that winter would return the first to second week of march. It will be nothing like December and January but we will see some colder, snowier days the next few weeks.

Much Needed Rain and Major Severe Weather Outbreak for the Lower Mississippi Valley

Wednesday 2/23/2011 7:30 Pm

A strong low pressure system will move from Oklahoma to near New York City by Friday morning. This system will spawn the first Major Tornado Outbreak of the year. Right now it appears that NE Texas, E Oklahoma, Arkansas and W Tennessee are most at risk of distructive tornados. Tomorrow afternoon will be expecially dangerous. We will likely see 20-35 tornados and several of these could be EF3-EF5 wedge tornados at least a 1/2 mile in diameter. Their will be some snow and ice to the north of the system in central Missouri up to Chicago and northern Indiana. This will not be the main story tomorrow. The Severe Weather is what will be tomorrows headline. Only a coating - 3" of snow and ice are expected on the north side of this system.

Thursday night into Friday morning the storm system will move into the mid Atlantic. Heavy rains are forecasted in the Appalachians and along the coast with heavy snow developing over the interior northeast as the low pressure intensifies along the coast. Severe weather over night tomorrow will be limited to Tennessee and northern Alabama and should begin to weaking as the storm pushes into a wedge that has developed on east side of the mountains.

 Forecasted rainfall is posted in the map above. Heavier rain totals of over one half inch are forecasted in the mountains and adjacent foothills with a quarter to one half inch over the remaining foothills and piedmont areas. Again, due to the developing wedge I am not expecting any severe weather for the western Carolinas but a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question.

Forecast:

Mountains
Thursday- Cloudy conditions in the morning with light drizzle or a few showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 40-45, 38-40 near the blueridge. Expect a steady rain developing after midnight, possibly heavy at times. Low near 45. Rainfall over one half inch.

Friday- Rain in the morning will taper off around noon. Cloudy and breezy conditions will remain through most of the afternoon with a few breaks in the clouds towards evening. High near 50. Friday night clearing conditions and cool. Low near 30.

Foothills
Thursday- Some sun in the morning followed by increasing clouds through the day. High 53-58. Cloudy conditions in the evening, a steady rain developing after midnight. Rainfall near 0.25". Low near 45.

Friday- Rain in the morning tapering off around noon. Total rainfall 0.25 - 0.50". Clearing conditions in the afternoon and breezy. Highs near 55. Clear skys over night and much cooler. Low 32-35.

Piedmont
Thursday- Partly Cloudy in the morning with increasing clouds through the day. High 55-60. Cloudy conditions in the evening with a steady rain developing over night. Rainfall less then 0.25". Low 46-49.

Friday- Rain and some thunder in the morning. Clearing conditions in the afternoon and breezy. High near 55. Clear and cooler overnight. Low near 35.

Much Needed Rain on the Way!

9:30 Pm Tuesday 2/22/2011 Updated:

Much cooler air will continue to filter into the area tonight as a back door cold front works its way down the east side of the Appalachian Mountains. We had dramatic temperature differences across the Carolinas today. At one point I looked and saw current temperatures of 39 in Raleigh, 35 in Norfolk Virginia and 51 in Wilmington, 66 in Charlotte. That is a huge contrast in temperatures. Colder temperatures will over take the rest of the Carolinas tonight. This will set up a wedge along the blue ridge that will potentially save much of the western Carolinas from the threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes but not heavy rain. This will be the first significant rainfall in over a month. We need it!

Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Afternoon Map:

A strong low Pressure system will track from Oklahoma to Kentucky bringing snow along and north of the Ohio River and the threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes from eastern Oklahoma to Tennessee and Kentucky. This will be the first MAJOR severe weather outbreak of the season with large, violent, long tracked tornadoes capable of doing localized catastrophic damage. This is just the beginning of what will be a very active tornado season in the nations heartland.

Thursday - Friday Morning Map:

By Thursday afternoon the low pressure system should be advancing through the Ohio Valley and move offshore near New Jersey overnight. The severe threat should diminish significantly as the storm moves east into the cool wedge that has developed along the east side of the Appalachians. Still, a slight chance of severe thunderstorms is likely along and south of I-85 from Alabama to the Carolina Piedmont. Heavy, soaking rains will be common south of the track of the low pressure with heavy snows in interior New England.

Forecast:

Mountains
Wednesday- Mostly sunny in the morning followed by partly cloudy sky's in the afternoon. Cool. High 44-46. Increasing clouds at night with a few sprinkles or light rain developing towards daybreak. Low 33-35.

Thursday- Cloudy sky's with rain developing around lunch time. High 45-47, with 39-44 east, along the blue ridge. A steady, potentially heavy rain and some thunder developing overnight. Rainfall near 1.00". Temperatures rising overnight to near 50, with 46-48 east along the blue ridge.

Foothills
Wednesday- Partly cloudy, with much cooler temperatures. Highs 50-53. Increasing clouds at night with a few showers possible towards daybreak. Low 37-40.

Thursday- Cloudy in the morning with a steady rain developing in the afternoon. High 50-54. Heavy rain developing overnight with some thunder possible. Rainfall 0.50 - 1.00". Temperatures steady or rising to near 55.

Piedmont
Wednesday- Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 52-56. Increasing clouds at night. Low near 40.

Thursday- Cloudy conditions in the morning followed by a few showers in the afternoon. Highs 53-56. A steady rain developing over night with some thunder. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms along and south of I-85. Rainfall 0.25 - 0.75". Temperatures steady or rising to near 60 overnight.

Stormy Late Week... and Winter still to Return in March

10:00 Pm Update Sunday 2/20

Map (Pattern through the end of February)

Warm air will still be in place across much of the south and southeast through the end of the month. We will see one or two quick shots of cold behind frequent storms by passing us to the north. Most of the storms will track from the southwest (four corners region) to the Midwest and into the northeast. These storm systems will drag trailing fronts behind them across our region bringing briefly colder air before warmer winds advance in ahead of the next storm.

Until now, severe weather and tornado outbreaks have been mostly absent from the United States which is very unusual for a la nina winter. Like last year, I credit this to the extreme cold that has been present most of the winter. The cold weather has significantly cooled the Gulf of Mexico reducing evaporation which does not allow abundant moisture north to fuel severe weather. The recent warming trend is beginning to heat up the Gulf and from the looks at modeling and atmospheric dynamics, our first Major Severe Weather Outbreak is possible by the end of the week. A major storm system is expected to develop Friday morning and track into the eastern Great Lakes and northeast. It will likely bring blizzard conditions to the north of the path and severe weather along the trailing front. It is still too early to tell if the right dynamics will follow the storm into the Carolinas and bring with it severe weather, but much needed heavy rains are looking likely. Right now I think the best chance of severe thunderstorms should stay to the west of the region over the Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee Valley.

Map of Late Week Storm:

I have been talking about the possibility of Winter trying to return to the south in March for over a week now. Global temperatures are going to be plummeting over the next 10 days. In fact right now the average global temperature is approximately .01 deg Celsius below normal. Ten days from now, ensemble models predict global temperatures will fall to .4 deg Celsius below normal. I know that doesn't seem like a lot, but we are talking about average temperatures across the entire GLOBE. This is significant cooling. Anyways, with so much cold air around the earth I am concerned that it may get worked into the pattern across the United States and push the warmth back south. Several of the numerical models are beginning to show my idea that cold will return. I can not predict any specific snows and it is hard to get snow outside of the mountains in march but if this does work out and much colder air returns with moisture on the increase, it will be possible to see more snow across the Carolinas. Models are currently showing this cold returning the first week of march but it will probably be closer to the second week. Don't get your gardens and flowers planted yet! Stay Tuned.

Forecast:

Mountains-
Monday: A few clouds, more sun than Sunday and much warmer. Increasing clouds at night. Highs in the lower 60s. Low in the upper 30s.

Tuesday: A few showers will be possible from in the morning followed by a few flurries. A front will move through early. Much cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 30s to around 40. Lows in the mid to upper 20s.

Foothills and Piedmont-
Monday: Abundant sunshine with very warm temperatures. Increasing clouds at night. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows in the upper 40s.

Tuesday: Cloudy conditions with a few early sprinkles followed by clearing skies, much cooler by the afternoon. No significant precipitation. Highs in the mid 50s. Lows in the low to mid 30s.

Much Above Normal Temperatures Through Friday!

10:30 pm Tuesday

A steady climb to much above normal temperatures by Friday. No significant precipitation expected for the next 7 days. (Maybe a few showers in the mountains Saturday morning but shouldn't be much)

Forecast:

Mountains-

After a chilly Tuesday, temperatures will begin to rebound on Wednesday. The rest of the week will be dominated by Sunshine, lighter winds, dry conditions and increasingly warm temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be in the middle to upper 50s. Thursdays high could approach 60 and by Friday we should get most everyone in the low 60s. Now that is a forecast most of you will like to read! Nights will remain cold, especially in the valleys with temperatures dropping into the 20s and 30s. A somewhat dry front will pass through on Saturday but only a few showers are expected. Next week looks like it could turn stormy with some much needed rain. Stay tuned!

Foothills and Piedmont-

Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 60s tomorrow with abundant sunshine. Thursday will see temperatures in the upper 60s in the Foothills to around 70 in the Piedmont. By Friday everyone should hit the 70 degree mark with some places in the Piedmont reaching into the low to mid 70s (Near record levels). Drought conditions will be worsening over the next 7 days with no significant precipitation in the future. A dry front will push through Saturday ushering in some cooler air but it may be the middle to end of next week before we see any rain. Stay tuned!

*** Recent satellite measurements are revealing that our current "strong" La Nina is beginning to weaken and some long range ensemble models are forecasting neutral conditions over the tropical pacific by summer. What does that mean for our weather? Well during a la nina, waters in the tropical pacific cool, causing a strong ridge of High Pressure (the Bermuda high) to wedge into the southeastern states sending the storm track north across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This leaves Western North Carolina mild and dry in the winter and Hot and Dry during the summer. If it had not been for that very negative North Atlantic Oscillation our winter would have been very different. This winter would have been much milder and snow less.

Anyways, by summer we should be near neutral as far as water temperatures in the tropical pacific ending our current dry period. We should see normal temperatures and normal precipitation over the summer. Non of the models are currently forecasting el nino to develop but we will have to keep an eye on that. ***

Here is a current image of the la nina conditions in the eastern tropical pacific. In november water temperatures were as much as -1.5 or 1.5 degrees (c) cooler than normal (not shown in Map). As of February 15 temperatures are between -1.0 and 1.0 (near the coast of South American). The waters are warming!

Both images are of February 15th showing the warming of the Pacific indicating the weakening of la nina.

Enjoy the warm, cold will make a comeback!

Yesterday we had very dangerous fire conditions across the entire state. I know of at least 3 major wild fires that broke out and several smaller ones. One of the major fires broke out very close to Boone around 3:30 pm yesterday afternoon. The fire was caused by the wind toppling over a power line and the active line ignited a fire near bamboo road. Because the winds were sustained 30-40 and at times where gusting over 50 mph the fire rapidly spread up Rocky Knob. The official acreage burned has not been released and I do not know if the fire has been extinguished but I do know that it is much smaller and has probably been contained. Conditions today should help the fire fighters put out the remaining fire. Relative Humidity has risen from about 17% to 66% here at my station in Lenoir and winds are calm this morning. Relative Humidity as also risen from about 18% to 80% in Boone and winds are currently calm as well.

Dry conditions will continue for the rest of the week but fire conditions will not be as explosive as yesterday. Until we get some rain everyone needs to be very careful. Please to not burn, or throw out cigarettes.

Forecast:

Mountains-

Today will be the coolest day this week, with highs around 50. This week will feature plenty of sunshine and warming temperatures. By Friday we should be approaching if not exceeding 60 here in the mountain areas. Saturday and Sunday a front will push through but it will not have much moisture to work with. A few showers are possible. Temperatures will fall into the 50's Saturday and 40's on Sunday for day time highs ending a stretch of really warm weather.

In the long range, next week will favor a storm track cutting into the Ohio river valley, this kind of track favors rain in our area and not snow, but after yesterdays fires we will take the rain! There are indications that much colder air will move back in between March 1 and March 3 but sometimes the models try to cause a pattern change faster than it actually happens. Stay tuned!

Foothills and Piedmont-

Today will be the coolest day this week, with highs around 60. This week will feature plenty of sunshine and warming temperatures. By Friday we should be approaching if not exceeding 70 here in the foothills and Piedmont areas. Some places may even push into the middle to upper 70s. Saturday and Sunday a front will push through but it will not have much moisture to work with. A few showers are possible. Temperatures will fall into the 60s Saturday and 50s on Sunday for day time highs ending a stretch of really warm weather.

In the long range next week will favor a storm track cutting into the Ohio river valley, this kind of track favors rain in our area and not snow but after yesterdays firess we will take the rain! There are indications that much colder air will move back in between March 1 and March 3 but sometimes the models try to cause a pattern change faster than it actually happens. Stay tuned!

Warmer Days Ahead, but for how long?

10:30 pm Sunday

This Winter has been pretty remarkable considering we are in a moderate to strong "la nina" which generally brings much warmer & drier winters to the eastern 2/3 of the country. But just like last winter, starting in December the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) both went into their negative phases and actually went extremely negative dealing us very harsh winter weather for much of the winter until now. We have finally flipped the pattern and the NAO, which will be the topic of this blog tonight, has gone back to the neutral/positive phase ending our brutal weather and sending a much needed warming trend (more representative of la nina) for most. Later this week I will look at the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and give some thoughts on where we are headed in the next several years. Both the AO and NAO have positive and negative phases and both their phases deal us the same kinda weather. Some consider them to be the "same" but they are different and I will show that as well.

Positive NAO                                                              Negative NAO

When the NAO is positive the Low and High Pressure systems over the North and Central Atlantic are much stronger causing the jet stream (storm track) to be flatter across North America. This keeps the cold weather bottled up in the Arctic, across eastern Canada and over much of greenland. Warm dry weather builds across the southeast and mid-atlantic states while the northeast recieve glancing blows from arctic outbreaks. The strong pressure systems also create very strong trade winds which blow from east to west across the tropical atlantic. These strong trade winds stir up cool waters from the ocean depts lowering sea surface temperatures. This plays a big part at reducing hurricane developement from this area of the atlantic (Cape Verde).

When the NAO is negative the Low and High Pressure systems over the Atlantic are much weaker, this cause the jet stream over the eastern United States to buckle, dipping down over the southeast and creating a strong "blocking" High Pressure over eastern canada. This sends all the arctic air spilling out of Canada and into the eastern 2/3 of the country. This explains all of the cold and snowy weather we have seen over the past few months. The NAO has been very negative since December 1st until now. Also, during winters that see a negative phase NAO will see sea surface temperatures rise in the tropical Atlantic, due to decreasing trade winds, increasing the risk of another Major Cape Verde Hurricane season (East Coast we need to watch out this summer).

Current NAO and NAO forecast:

From this image you can see how the NAO has been negative since late november. You can also see the NAO going positive around January 16th. This has a lag time of several weeks. So we began to see very harsh winter weather around December 4-5 which was approxiamtley 2 weeks after the NAO tanked. Also, we are just now seeing warmer temperatures developing which is approxiamtley 2-3 weeks after the NAO when positive. The red lines that are drawn out in advance are the ensemble models prediction of where the NAO will go. In the near term they are clustered tightly in the positive phase but towards the end of the month many of them go towards neutral and even slightly negative (not as negative as December and January) indicating some weak "blocking". We will need to watch this because it may try to send us more winter weather towards the beginning and middle of March.

Current Pattern for the Next 10-15 days:

Forecast:

Mountains- Tomorrow a front comes through during the afternoon and brings our warming trend to a hold for 36 hours. Temperatures will make a run at the 50s before they begin to fall tomorrow afternoon with very windy conditions. Tomorrow night looks very cold with a few flurries possible. Tuesday will be very windy too with near normal temperatures. A strong warming trend will begin Wednesday and run through Saturday. The timing of the next front is still up in the air but late next weekend we could see some rain and cooler temperatures. The mountain areas may make a run at the 60's by the end of the week.

Foothills and Piedmont- Tomorrow will be another nice day with temperatures in the mid to upper 60's. Tomorrow night and into Tuesday look slightly cooler with a front coming through tomorrow evening. It will be a dry front so I am not expecting any precipitation tomorrow evening. Wednesday through Saturday look amazing! Temperatures possibily approaching 70 by the end of the week before a front and some showers move in by late next weekend.

Stay Tuned***  A look at the Arctic Oscillation tomorrow



Sorry Its Been so Long.

So last week's storm didn't work out as planned. I should have stuck with my initial forecast. The upper air wind flow was just not set up for a snowstorm over the western Carolinas. Even with the storm moving in faster than forecast and the presence of a jet streak developing ahead of the storm, so much dry air was in place that by the time the precipitation moistened up the atmosphere enough to reach the ground, all the precipitation was east of the area. From what I can tell 1-2" fell on the western slopes a dusting for most and hardly anything in the foothills and Piedmont.

Anyways, enough with the cold talk. After Tuesday of this week a huge warming trend will be starting and from what I can tell on the models our winter pattern has broken. Mild/dry weather is with us as far as the eye can see.

Tonight, I will blog again and show a graphic of the next 10-15 days and beyond that why I think winter will make a comeback in March. I will also talk about what I expect for summer and the next several winters.

10:00 am Update

10:00 am Wednesday

The storm system is a bit further north and faster as of right now than was expected and that's what I was afraid of. Also, there appears to be a jet streak developing which is pushing some of the moisture even faster in our direction. We saw this develop with a storm last year and the Christmas 2010 storm, which by the way looks like a similar scenario to our current storm. Models with the Christmas storm were pushing the primary low to the Gulf of Mexico and developing a new surface low on the coast. This did indeed happen but the models had not accurately forecasted the speed  and strength of the primary low as it got closer and they did not pick up on the jet streak that developed either. The forecast for that storm was a dusting to 1" Boone and dusting in the foothills and storm totals were 5" in Boone and 9" in Lenoir. While I do not think we will see that much I do caution everyone that I think we will see more than forecasted.'

Current Radar Image:

Updated Snow Map:

Mountains: 2-4" Isolated 5" (to the southwest)

Foothills: 1-2" Isolated 3"

Piedmont: Dusting - 1"

Coastal Plain: 2-6"

Ligth Snow and Then a Bit Warmer Next Week!

Update: 6:15 am Wednesday

Models continue to shove the low pressure deep into the Gulf of Mexico and weaken it before a new low pressure takes over and heads up the coast. This leaves most of the western Carolinas in the rip of zone for snow. I do want to caution everyone to be prepared. It would not be out of the realm of possibilities for the low pressure to stay further north and stronger than the models are saying. Both the last two storms that have hit the Ohio Valley have had more moisture to work with and were further north/west than the models had forecast.
Having said that, here is a Map of my interpretation of what will happen today through tomorrow.

Heavy snow has developed over Oklahoma, north Texas and will push into Arkansas today. As the low pressure drops into the northern Gulf of Mexico and weakens, a streak of moderate snow will push out through the Tennessee valley and into south western North Carolina. The primary low pressure will continue to weaken and eventually dissipate as it transfers energy to a new low pressure developing on the Carolina coast. The new low pressure will begin to intensify rapidly causing some moderate to heavy snow accumulations in the coastal plain of North Carolina and southeast Virginia. This low will be too far away to bring any heavy moisture our way. So you can see the rip of zone in western and central North Carolina.
*** It would not take much for that band of moderate snow to streak just a little further east in the the north Mountains and Foothills. Be prepared even though the official forecast is just for 1-2". ***

Forecast:

Mountains-

Boone area: Snow begins between 7-9 pm tonight. 1-2" locally, 3" possible.

Asheville and southwestern mountain area: Snow begins between 7-9 pm tonight, 2-4" locally 5"

Foothills and Piedmont area: Snow begins between 8-10 pm tonight, dusting - 1" locally 1-2" especially in far southern foothills (Henderson to Rutherford) and far northern foothills (Patterson to Wilkesboro).

Snow Map: (Subject to change today as I watch the radar and see how this storm holds together heading east)

***New update in the morning when I see the newest model runs. I think there was some error in today's models and I think they are underestimating this storm. I will look at them and at the current radar in the morning and give you my thoughts.***

Kris

Wintry Week... Big Storm looking less likely!

Updated: 5:30 pm Sunday

***Continuing to Monitor the Possibility of a Winter Storm Affecting the Carolinas Wednesday Night and Thursday. Stay Tuned!***

The Models are now in unanimous agreement that snow will develop Wednesday night over the entire area. But it now appears less likely that the southern energy will phase with the northern disturbance developing a Major Winter Storm. Storm track #2 is now the favored solution which still brings light to moderate snow to the area. Lighter snows along and north of I-40 and moderate snows along the I-85 corridor. This storm is still 3 days out and the models have NOT had a good handle on this system. Once the storm begins to develop east of the Rockies the models will get a much better idea on what will happen. But as of right now I am favoring track # 2.

The Map below shows my idea of the Wednesday night storm:

Forecast:

Mountains-
Forecast remains unchanged. Tomorrow will be another nice and mild day before a front moves through ushering in some much colder temperatures. Snow will develop along and behind this front Monday night. The snow may come down heavy for a time monday night but accumulations appear to be elevation dependant and favoring the western slopes. The snow will end Tuesday morning. Tuesday looks cold and windy with highs in the lower 20s. Accumulations for 2-5" are expected on the west facing slopes and above 3500 feet with 1-2" below 3500 feet and east. Stay tuned for updates on Wednesday's and Thursday's Winter Storm.

Foothills-
Monday looks mild and dry for most of the day. A cold front will move through in the evening ushering in some much colder air and a few rain showers.  A developing low pressure along the coast could throw enough moisture back into the Foothills late Monday night to produce a period of wet snow or flurries around and just after midnight. No accumulations are expected. Tuesday looks much colder and breezy with highs only in the mid to upper 30s. Stay tuned for updates on Wednesday's and Thursday's Winter Storm.

Piedmont- Monday will be another nice day with highs in the mid-50s and plenty of sunshine. A cold front will move through Monday night bring a chance of rain showers and ushering in much colder air. As the front approaches the coast, a low pressure will being to develop along it. This low pressure could throw enough moisture back into the cold air to produce a period of wet snow or flurries around or just after midnight. No accumulations are expected. Tuesday looks very cold with a high around 40 along with a stiff NW breeze. Stay tuned for updates on Wednesday's and Thursday's Winter Storm.

Snow Accumulation Map for Monday Night:

Very Wintry Week Ahead!

Update: 11:00 am Saturday

***Continuing to monitor the potential for a Major Winter storm the middle of next week over the Western Carolina's.***

The models have been back and forth over the last few days, as expected, but the general idea is that a big winter storm will develop in the gulf of Mexico before moving up the Atlantic Coast next Wednesday and Thursday. The map below shows two possible scenarios: #1 the southern energy phases with the northern energy and arctic air to create a BIG storm or #2 the southern energy escapes off the coast and out to see leaving us with a weaker northern branch disturbance and cold air behind that...NO big storm. At this point in time I am not favoring either scenario. Nothing is set in stone so I am not going to hype this event just yet or even give thoughts on accumulations. Stay tuned!

Forecast:

Mountains-
Cold and drizzle will dominate the forecast for the rest of Saturday. Colder air moves in tonight changing the drizzle to flurries and maybe a few snow showers. No accumulation expected. Sunday will be very nice with highs in the low to mid 40s and plenty of sunshine. Most of Monday looks pretty nice as well. I think we will see highs in the low 40s before a strong cold front pushes in and  temperatures being to fall. Their will be some snow with this system Monday evening into Tuesday morning, my first shot at accumulations looks like 2-5" for the western slopes and higher elevations with 1-2" inches for most. Again beyond Tuesday is still a big question mark.

Foothills-
Drizzle and very chilly temperatures are also the rule here in the foothills for the remainder of the day. Tonight as winds turn from the NW colder and dryer air will filter in. Temperatures will fall to around 30. Tomorrow looks really nice with highs in the low to mid 50s and plenty of sunshine, get out and enjoy because next week looks like winter returns with a vengeance. Monday is not as confident here in the foothills as it is for the mountains. Most of monday will again be mild and dry with highs in the 50s. Towards evening a storm system will appoach along with some limited moisture but very cold air following it. Right now I think a few rain showers possible ending as a few snow flurries is a good bet. Although some of the models are hinting at this system trying to develop a low pressure on the coast and throwing more moisture our way which would lead to some accumulating snow Monday Night. If you live in the foothills stay tuned and again anything beyond Tuesday is really low confidence but there is another shot at accumulationg snow Wednesday - Thursday.

Piedmont-
Saturday will feature a few rain showers, drizzle and very chilly temperatures with highs most likely remaining below 40 degrees. Sunday will be milder than the previous days with highs reaching the upper 50s. Monday, just like the Foothills, is tricky. Right now I am expecting mild, dry conditions during the day with highs in the 50s. Monday night a system will approach from the west bringing the chance for a few rain showers that could end as flurries once the arctic air begins to invade. Some models are trying to develop a low pressure on the coast which could send moisture back into the piedmont as the cold air is invading leading to the potential for some accumulating snow. Again that is not the forecast call right now, but there is a chance that I will need to revise this forecast. Beyond tuesday is very low confidence. Stay tuned!

First Snow Map for Monday night:

Icy Thursday Night and Friday Morning

Updated: 5:30 pm

Forecast: Remains unchanged.

Mountains: (Freezing Rain Advisory)
Precipitation will begin over night as a mixture of snow and sleet. Accumulations of snow and sleet should remain less than 1" (dusting for most). Freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation type during the day Friday, especially on the Blue Ridge. Freezing rain should change to just rain west of Boone by late morning, but Icy conditions will hold on along the Blue Ridge until Friday evening. Accumulations of ice will range from a light glaze west to 0.10 - 0.25" from Boone east to the Blue Ridge. Everyone should change back over to a period of light snow Saturday. A dusting for most, but 1-2" are possible on the west facing slopes.

Foothills: (Freezing Rain Advisory) Along and north of I-40
A mixture of snow and sleet will develop over night, quickly transitioning to sleet and freezing rain. Freezing rain and sleet will continue through early afternoon before transitioning to plain rain Friday afternoon. Sleet accumulations should be light but a notable accumulation of freezing rain (0.15"-0.25") is expected on trees and power lines. I am still not expecting any tree damage or power outages. Rain will also be heavy at times with up to 1" expected in the northern Foothills and 1-2" over the southern foothills.

Piedmont: (Freezing Rain Advisory) Iredell, Rowan and Davie Counties
Sleet and maybe a few snowflakes will develop overnight quickly transitioning to freezing rain and rain. The northern Piedmont will likely see freezing rain through late morning, the rest of the Piedmont will transition to rain around daybreak Friday morning. Everyone will change to rain around noon Friday and the rain will be heavy through the afternoon and night time hours. 1-2" of rain will be possible.

*** Still watching two storm systems that could bring some type of wintry weather to the western Carolinas next week. Stay tuned! ***

MAPS:

Highlighted counties are where the National Weather Service has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory.

The map below is where I have predicted wintry precipitation for tomorrow morning:

Another Messy Storm, Arctic Air and More Winter Next Week

8:00 pm Wednesday Evening...

Forecast: (There is a lot of weather in the next 3 days... read carefully)

Change is coming, I promise. It is just taking us a while to get there.

Mountains - Temperatures will fall into the middle to upper teens tonight with a few flurries and snow showers on the Tennessee line (maybe a dusting there). Tomorrow will be cold with highs around 30 and increasing clouds in the afternoon. The next storm will move in late Thursday night into Friday morning. If the storm tracks just a little fast and further east then we could be looking at a substantial snow event. Right now I am favoring a brief snow (dusting for most) then changing to rain west of Boone and Freezing Rain east. There may be an extended period of freezing rain along the blue ridge Friday so be prepared for some slick travel. Everyone should change over to rain Friday night and the rain could be heavy at times. I expect a brief changeover back to snow on Saturday but no accumulation is expected right now.
***We are right on the line as far as temperatures go, if the track of the storm is faster or shifts more to the east a substantial snow event would be possible. Stay Tuned!!!***

Foothills- Temperatures tonight will fall into the middle to upper 20s. Tomorrow will be chilly with highs in the low 40s and increasing clouds in the afternoon. Another storm is expected to move in Friday morning. If the precipitation gets in early enough Friday then there could be a brief period of snow, but most of the precipitation Friday morning should fall as sleet and freezing rain. There could be an extended period of freezing rain creating hazardous driving and a 0.10" - 0.20" glaze on the trees and power lines. This is not enough to cause  downed trees or power lines. Everything should change over to all rain Friday around noon and could be heavy through Friday night. 1-2" of Rain are expected over the mountains and southern foothills and up to 1" of rain in the northern foothills.
***We are right on the line as far as temperatures go, if the track of the storm is faster or shifts more to the east a substantial snow event would be possible. Stay Tuned!!!***

Piedmont- Temperatures tonight will fall to around 30. Tomorrow will be chilly with highs in the mid to upper 40s and increasing afternoon clouds. Precipitation may start Friday morning as a few sleet pellets or light freezing rain. Most of the precipitation should fall as rain and it will be heavy at times. 1-2" of rain can be expected by the time the rain ends on Saturday.

Next week is looking colder and stormier than I had previously thought. Winter is really trying to hang on. There could be a couple chances for snow in the western Carolina's. I'll keep you posted.

MAPS:

Heavy Rain, Snowstorm, Arctic air then Spring????

10:00 pm update:

Forecast for tomorrow through Wednesday is high confidence.
Some very light freezing drizzle can be expected over night and in the morning from Boone to the Blue Ridge, maybe even in the northern foothills such as Patterson and the brushy mountain range. Heavy Rain with some thunder is expected tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, especially in the foothills and Piedmont. Still looking for rain totals between 1 and 2 inches in the mountains and foothills with up to 1 inch in the Piedmont. Once the front passes on Wednesday evening expect breezy conditions and much colder temperatures. Temperatures will fall to the upper teens to around 20 in the high country and the upper 20s off the mountain.

Thursday looks cold but clear and dry with plenty of sunshine!

Now for the low confidence part of the forecast. It does appear that a low pressure will develop in the western gulf of mexico thursday night/Friday morning and move northeast to eastern North Carolina by Saturday, throwing ample amounts of moisture into the western Carolina's. This is a classic track for a significant snow for the mountains and foothills. BUT... like last week the arctic air will be retreating to the north and east leaving us with a mild low level southerly flow bring in slightly warmer conditions. Yesterday we were concern about the track, now that we kinda have an idea about the track, timing will be an issue. If the storm speeds up, more cold air will still be in place, if the storm slows down the cold air will be gone leaving the western Carolina's (even the mountains) with a nasty cold rain or winter mix. I am not yet convinced either way.

The next few days will tell alot. Stay tuned!!!!

dgex model (which is a mix of the GFS and NAM models) showing significant snow over the Carolina's.

MAP

Pattern Change, but Winter Trying to Hang On!

6:45pm Update:

Forecast

Mountains-

Monday- will be much cooler with highs only in the upper 30s. Clouds will be increasing as a wedge will being to set-up and build down the east side of the Blue Ridge. Light rain and drizzle should develop by evening. Overnight temperatures will drop to near freezing in Boone and just below freezing along the Blue Ridge (Blowing Rock to Deep Gap) allowing for some light freezing rain and freezing drizzle. West of Boone it should remain all liquid.
Tuesday- watch for morning light freezing rain/freezing drizzle along the blue ridge. Everyone should warm above freezing between noon and early afternoon ending any icing that may occur. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with day time temperatures holding in the 30s. Over night a warm surge of air will move in. Temperatures should rise into the 40s maybe even 50s on the western slopes. Heavy rain will also move in overnight.
Wednesday- Heavy Rain will be falling through most of the morning with temps in the 40s (east) to 50s (west). By late afternoon a strong front will push through ending the heavy rain and causing temperatures to fall rapidly. Overnight temperatures will fall into the lower 20s and there is a chance for some snow flurries or a snow shower. No accumulation expected.

Foothills-

Monday- Skies will become cloudy with highs in the low to mid-40s. Light rain will develop in the evening hours. Overnight expect occasional showers and drizzle with temperatures just above freezing. ( We need to watch for the potential for some light freezing rain if temperatures fall a little more than expected) Northern Caldwell and Wilkes Counties, right along the Blue Ridge could see some light icing.
Tuesday- Light rain should end by noon, cloudy and cool conditions should continue most of the evening. Overnight temperatures will surge into the 50s, especially in the southern foothills and heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are likely.
Wednesday- Expect heavy rain and a few thunderstorms in the morning followed by clearing skies in the evening. Temperatures will fall overnight into the 30s.

For more on rain totals, potential icing and thunderstorm threats look at the maps on the previous post.

***Another storm system is expected to develop in the western gulf on Friday. With much colder air in place this weekend, depending on the track of the storm, it could bring a period of snow or rain to the western Carolina's. Track A would depect a snowier solutions. Track B would take the storm out to see and keep most of the moisture to our south. Stay tuned! ***

Weekend Storm Map Tracks:

Drought Busting Rains/Thunder Headed Our Way!

Saturday 4:30 pm Update:

Looks like the models have trended much further west over the past day. A Low Pressure should develop over west Texas and cut to the great lakes region next week. This should keep most of our precipitation in the form of rain. I was concerned about the potential of a strong wedge setting up creating the possibility for a significant ice storm. At this point in time the High Pressure that will be centered over New England does not look strong enough to keep the cold air at the surface in place keeping most of the precipitation as rain. After some light freezing rain Tuesday morning along the blue ridge everyone should change over to all liquid. In fact enough warm air may get into the Piedmont to cause the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms, especially along I-85. Colder air will rush in behind the cold front that is responsible for all the rain and may bring some LIGHT accumulations of snow to the western slopes Wednesday evening. The pattern looks to be changing some, with the brunt of the cold air headed for the southern plain as opposed to the south east. As the arctic air slides east (towards the south east) it will modify allowing the western Carolina's a break from this snowy pattern.

Forecast:

Mountains: Great weather for the rest of the weekend with lots of sunshine and highs in the 50s! Get out and enjoy!

Foothills: Lots of sunshine here as well with highs in the low to mid 60s!

**Stay tuned for details on next weeks storm and the potential for severe weather**

MAPS

Light Snow for Friday AM- Mountains

Thursday 6:00 pm (Had to revise the noon update SNOW MAP a bit)

A fast moving disturbance will move into the mountains later tonight and Friday morning bring the chance of some light snow.

Forecast:

Mountains- Expect a chilly but sunny afternoon with increasing clouds tonight. Light snow will develop in the early morning hours to around dawn and continue to around noon. A few left over snow flurries and snow showers will be possible through Friday afternoon. Accumulations will favor the western slopes. No accumulations to a very light dusting far east (Paul, Meaghan and Gregs house), Dusting to 1" for most (Boone area) and 1-2" west (Jodi and Pam).

Foothills- Dry, chilly weather will continues the next few days. Looks like a great weekend off the mountain with temperatures warming into the 50's with sunshine! Get out and enjoy cause winter has more tricks coming.

*** Still monitoring the possibility of a winter storm the middle of next week followed by a severe Arctic outbreak. Stay tuned the first 3 weeks of February looks very cold!***

Snow Map:

Repeat???

9:00 pm

GFS model showing 6-10" of snow over much of the western Carolina's next Wednesday. This is over a week out so do not get excited. Just keep in mind that all the major models are now showing a storm, the track and details will work themselves out over the next week.
This is not set in stone. Could be anything from rain, to freezing rain, to sleet or snow.

Here is the model...little eye candy for next week:)

**Stay tuned**

5:00 pm Update...

5:00 pm...

For the most part things have worked out as planned. Snow was very heavy this morning creating terrible road conditions and after a brief break, snow picked back up around lunch time through early afternoon. I think most places will pick up what was forecasted. I think we have between 2 and 3 inches here at the Wellness Center, about one inch lower than expected due to some warmer temperatures. Most places above 3600 feet are between 3 and 7 inches expecially toward the western end of the country and up into Ashe County.

Forecast: Mountains
Snow showers and flurries will continue off and on through the evening but I am not expect more than a dusting for most places, maybe another inch near the Tennessee line. Blowing snow will be a problem with winds gusting 25-35 mph tonight. Temperature will also drop to the low to mid 20's and roads will likely become very icy and hazardous as the evening progresses.
Thursday should start with some clouds but become increasingly sunny through the day, before clouds increase again at night. Temperatures will warm to near or just above freezing by the afternoon. Friday we will see a period of light snow showers and snow flurries in the morning ending around noon. Only expecting very light accumulations (dusting to maybe 1" for most). Another chance of snow flurries will be possible late Friday night into Saturday morning (no accumulation expected).

Foothills: Maybe a sprinkle or snow flurry this evening (no accumulation). Roads should dry up this evening before temperatures fall below freezing. Any roads that remain wet will be icy in the morning with temperatures in the mid-20s. Look for chilly be sunny weather through the weekend.



*** There is the possiblility of another storm the middle of next week that could bring some type of wintry weather to both the mountains and foothills but it is way to early for details and specifics. I'll keep you posted***

This is the final snow map of what most of the area received:

6:30 am

Forecast:
Remains unchanged. Everything is looking good this morning. The NAM has now come into better agreement with the other models.

Mountains: Rain/sleet this morning will change to a heavy wet snow between 8 and 10 am. Around Boone expect 3 or 4 inches with the 5,6 and maybe 7 inches up towards Ashe County. South of Boone into Avery County expect lower amounts of 2-4 inches. Check out the snow map on the previous post.
Friday night into Saturday expect light snow/flurries to break out, not expecting much accumulation.

Foothills: Sleet has been mixing with Rain this morning, expecially in the heavier showers. Caldwell County Schools are on a two hour delay. For the rest of this morning, expect some heavier rain/sleet to come through and maybe even a bit of thunder. I still expect the rain to mix or change over to snow this evening only accumulating to a dusting and it will be slushy.

Piedmont: Heavy rain showers will move through the northern piedmont with maybe some sleet and thunder. Mostly light rain elsewhere. Tonight rain should come to an end, possible mixing with a few snow flakes before ending.

Off to work!

Tuesday 8:30 pm update

8:30 pm update...

Forecast:
Remains mostly unchanged, 3-7" from Boone north into Ashe County, 2-4" from Boone South into Avery, Yancey, Madison and Mitchell Counties, 1-3" around Asheville, and a dusting to 1" still seems likely for the northern foothills (Caldwell, Alexander and Wilkes Counties)

Mountains: With temperatures creeping down this evening, look for some snow, sleet and freezing rain to mix with rain above 3,500 feet and along the Blue Ridge. I do not expect any accumulation tonight. Look for the change over to occur around or just after day break. Heavy snow should be falling by late morning. Snow could potenitally come down at 1-2" per hour. Road conditions will prob deteriorate very quickly by late morning.

Foothills: Light rain and drizzle should continue tonight. Heavier precipitation will move back in by mid-morning in the form of rain. So far we have had 0.15" of rain and I expect our total rainfall to be 0.50". I do expect the rain to mix with and change over to snow by late afternoon or early evening (around 5pm) Wednesday. Accumulations will be limited to the northern foothills (see snow map) north of I-40.

Piedmont: Drizzle/Fog will continue tonight. Expect some rain showers to move in during the late morning hours. Total rain fall should be generally less than 0.50". It is possible a few snow flakes mix with the rain in the northern piedmont around I-40 but I do not expect any accumulation.

Analysis:
Not much has changed. The models continue to show much different scenarios. I am still sticking with my latest snow map. I will show you why I think things will work out this way.

First: This is the most recent run of the GFS model, for 8 pm Wednesday evening:

The GFS has shift back to the south, you can see some very heavy snow falling over the mountains, if this comes true Boone would be looking at 5-10" or a bit more, but don't get to excited yet.

This is the latest run of the NAM model for 8 pm Wednesday evening:

The NAM continues to support a further north track and a much weaker upper low, as is shown by the lighter precipitation amounts. If the NAM is right I would need to lower the accumulations in Boone to 1-3". Unfortunately I can not show you the European or the Canadian Models. They both are closer to the GFS in intensity and their position is between the GFS and the NAM. So I am sticking with accumulations that are a compromise of all the models.

Again, I will stress... Upper level lows are very hard for the models to predict, thats why we are seeing such disagreement in the models. I will check the radar and see where the upper low is positioned in the morning and make any adjustments if I need too.

Night

Kris