Forecast for tomorrow through Wednesday is high confidence.
Some very light freezing drizzle can be expected over night and in the morning from Boone to the Blue Ridge, maybe even in the northern foothills such as Patterson and the brushy mountain range. Heavy Rain with some thunder is expected tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, especially in the foothills and Piedmont. Still looking for rain totals between 1 and 2 inches in the mountains and foothills with up to 1 inch in the Piedmont. Once the front passes on Wednesday evening expect breezy conditions and much colder temperatures. Temperatures will fall to the upper teens to around 20 in the high country and the upper 20s off the mountain.
Thursday looks cold but clear and dry with plenty of sunshine!
Now for the low confidence part of the forecast. It does appear that a low pressure will develop in the western gulf of mexico thursday night/Friday morning and move northeast to eastern North Carolina by Saturday, throwing ample amounts of moisture into the western Carolina's. This is a classic track for a significant snow for the mountains and foothills. BUT... like last week the arctic air will be retreating to the north and east leaving us with a mild low level southerly flow bring in slightly warmer conditions. Yesterday we were concern about the track, now that we kinda have an idea about the track, timing will be an issue. If the storm speeds up, more cold air will still be in place, if the storm slows down the cold air will be gone leaving the western Carolina's (even the mountains) with a nasty cold rain or winter mix. I am not yet convinced either way.
The next few days will tell alot. Stay tuned!!!!
dgex model (which is a mix of the GFS and NAM models) showing significant snow over the Carolina's.
MAP
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