Tuesday 8:30 pm update

8:30 pm update...

Forecast:
Remains mostly unchanged, 3-7" from Boone north into Ashe County, 2-4" from Boone South into Avery, Yancey, Madison and Mitchell Counties, 1-3" around Asheville, and a dusting to 1" still seems likely for the northern foothills (Caldwell, Alexander and Wilkes Counties)

Mountains: With temperatures creeping down this evening, look for some snow, sleet and freezing rain to mix with rain above 3,500 feet and along the Blue Ridge. I do not expect any accumulation tonight. Look for the change over to occur around or just after day break. Heavy snow should be falling by late morning. Snow could potenitally come down at 1-2" per hour. Road conditions will prob deteriorate very quickly by late morning.

Foothills: Light rain and drizzle should continue tonight. Heavier precipitation will move back in by mid-morning in the form of rain. So far we have had 0.15" of rain and I expect our total rainfall to be 0.50". I do expect the rain to mix with and change over to snow by late afternoon or early evening (around 5pm) Wednesday. Accumulations will be limited to the northern foothills (see snow map) north of I-40.

Piedmont: Drizzle/Fog will continue tonight. Expect some rain showers to move in during the late morning hours. Total rain fall should be generally less than 0.50". It is possible a few snow flakes mix with the rain in the northern piedmont around I-40 but I do not expect any accumulation.

Analysis:
Not much has changed. The models continue to show much different scenarios. I am still sticking with my latest snow map. I will show you why I think things will work out this way.

First: This is the most recent run of the GFS model, for 8 pm Wednesday evening:

The GFS has shift back to the south, you can see some very heavy snow falling over the mountains, if this comes true Boone would be looking at 5-10" or a bit more, but don't get to excited yet.

This is the latest run of the NAM model for 8 pm Wednesday evening:

The NAM continues to support a further north track and a much weaker upper low, as is shown by the lighter precipitation amounts. If the NAM is right I would need to lower the accumulations in Boone to 1-3". Unfortunately I can not show you the European or the Canadian Models. They both are closer to the GFS in intensity and their position is between the GFS and the NAM. So I am sticking with accumulations that are a compromise of all the models.

Again, I will stress... Upper level lows are very hard for the models to predict, thats why we are seeing such disagreement in the models. I will check the radar and see where the upper low is positioned in the morning and make any adjustments if I need too.

Night

Kris