10:00 am Update

10:00 am Wednesday

The storm system is a bit further north and faster as of right now than was expected and that's what I was afraid of. Also, there appears to be a jet streak developing which is pushing some of the moisture even faster in our direction. We saw this develop with a storm last year and the Christmas 2010 storm, which by the way looks like a similar scenario to our current storm. Models with the Christmas storm were pushing the primary low to the Gulf of Mexico and developing a new surface low on the coast. This did indeed happen but the models had not accurately forecasted the speed  and strength of the primary low as it got closer and they did not pick up on the jet streak that developed either. The forecast for that storm was a dusting to 1" Boone and dusting in the foothills and storm totals were 5" in Boone and 9" in Lenoir. While I do not think we will see that much I do caution everyone that I think we will see more than forecasted.'

Current Radar Image:

Updated Snow Map:

Mountains: 2-4" Isolated 5" (to the southwest)

Foothills: 1-2" Isolated 3"

Piedmont: Dusting - 1"

Coastal Plain: 2-6"

Ligth Snow and Then a Bit Warmer Next Week!

Update: 6:15 am Wednesday

Models continue to shove the low pressure deep into the Gulf of Mexico and weaken it before a new low pressure takes over and heads up the coast. This leaves most of the western Carolinas in the rip of zone for snow. I do want to caution everyone to be prepared. It would not be out of the realm of possibilities for the low pressure to stay further north and stronger than the models are saying. Both the last two storms that have hit the Ohio Valley have had more moisture to work with and were further north/west than the models had forecast.
Having said that, here is a Map of my interpretation of what will happen today through tomorrow.

Heavy snow has developed over Oklahoma, north Texas and will push into Arkansas today. As the low pressure drops into the northern Gulf of Mexico and weakens, a streak of moderate snow will push out through the Tennessee valley and into south western North Carolina. The primary low pressure will continue to weaken and eventually dissipate as it transfers energy to a new low pressure developing on the Carolina coast. The new low pressure will begin to intensify rapidly causing some moderate to heavy snow accumulations in the coastal plain of North Carolina and southeast Virginia. This low will be too far away to bring any heavy moisture our way. So you can see the rip of zone in western and central North Carolina.
*** It would not take much for that band of moderate snow to streak just a little further east in the the north Mountains and Foothills. Be prepared even though the official forecast is just for 1-2". ***

Forecast:

Mountains-

Boone area: Snow begins between 7-9 pm tonight. 1-2" locally, 3" possible.

Asheville and southwestern mountain area: Snow begins between 7-9 pm tonight, 2-4" locally 5"

Foothills and Piedmont area: Snow begins between 8-10 pm tonight, dusting - 1" locally 1-2" especially in far southern foothills (Henderson to Rutherford) and far northern foothills (Patterson to Wilkesboro).

Snow Map: (Subject to change today as I watch the radar and see how this storm holds together heading east)

***New update in the morning when I see the newest model runs. I think there was some error in today's models and I think they are underestimating this storm. I will look at them and at the current radar in the morning and give you my thoughts.***

Kris

Wintry Week... Big Storm looking less likely!

Updated: 5:30 pm Sunday

***Continuing to Monitor the Possibility of a Winter Storm Affecting the Carolinas Wednesday Night and Thursday. Stay Tuned!***

The Models are now in unanimous agreement that snow will develop Wednesday night over the entire area. But it now appears less likely that the southern energy will phase with the northern disturbance developing a Major Winter Storm. Storm track #2 is now the favored solution which still brings light to moderate snow to the area. Lighter snows along and north of I-40 and moderate snows along the I-85 corridor. This storm is still 3 days out and the models have NOT had a good handle on this system. Once the storm begins to develop east of the Rockies the models will get a much better idea on what will happen. But as of right now I am favoring track # 2.

The Map below shows my idea of the Wednesday night storm:

Forecast:

Mountains-
Forecast remains unchanged. Tomorrow will be another nice and mild day before a front moves through ushering in some much colder temperatures. Snow will develop along and behind this front Monday night. The snow may come down heavy for a time monday night but accumulations appear to be elevation dependant and favoring the western slopes. The snow will end Tuesday morning. Tuesday looks cold and windy with highs in the lower 20s. Accumulations for 2-5" are expected on the west facing slopes and above 3500 feet with 1-2" below 3500 feet and east. Stay tuned for updates on Wednesday's and Thursday's Winter Storm.

Foothills-
Monday looks mild and dry for most of the day. A cold front will move through in the evening ushering in some much colder air and a few rain showers.  A developing low pressure along the coast could throw enough moisture back into the Foothills late Monday night to produce a period of wet snow or flurries around and just after midnight. No accumulations are expected. Tuesday looks much colder and breezy with highs only in the mid to upper 30s. Stay tuned for updates on Wednesday's and Thursday's Winter Storm.

Piedmont- Monday will be another nice day with highs in the mid-50s and plenty of sunshine. A cold front will move through Monday night bring a chance of rain showers and ushering in much colder air. As the front approaches the coast, a low pressure will being to develop along it. This low pressure could throw enough moisture back into the cold air to produce a period of wet snow or flurries around or just after midnight. No accumulations are expected. Tuesday looks very cold with a high around 40 along with a stiff NW breeze. Stay tuned for updates on Wednesday's and Thursday's Winter Storm.

Snow Accumulation Map for Monday Night:

Very Wintry Week Ahead!

Update: 11:00 am Saturday

***Continuing to monitor the potential for a Major Winter storm the middle of next week over the Western Carolina's.***

The models have been back and forth over the last few days, as expected, but the general idea is that a big winter storm will develop in the gulf of Mexico before moving up the Atlantic Coast next Wednesday and Thursday. The map below shows two possible scenarios: #1 the southern energy phases with the northern energy and arctic air to create a BIG storm or #2 the southern energy escapes off the coast and out to see leaving us with a weaker northern branch disturbance and cold air behind that...NO big storm. At this point in time I am not favoring either scenario. Nothing is set in stone so I am not going to hype this event just yet or even give thoughts on accumulations. Stay tuned!

Forecast:

Mountains-
Cold and drizzle will dominate the forecast for the rest of Saturday. Colder air moves in tonight changing the drizzle to flurries and maybe a few snow showers. No accumulation expected. Sunday will be very nice with highs in the low to mid 40s and plenty of sunshine. Most of Monday looks pretty nice as well. I think we will see highs in the low 40s before a strong cold front pushes in and  temperatures being to fall. Their will be some snow with this system Monday evening into Tuesday morning, my first shot at accumulations looks like 2-5" for the western slopes and higher elevations with 1-2" inches for most. Again beyond Tuesday is still a big question mark.

Foothills-
Drizzle and very chilly temperatures are also the rule here in the foothills for the remainder of the day. Tonight as winds turn from the NW colder and dryer air will filter in. Temperatures will fall to around 30. Tomorrow looks really nice with highs in the low to mid 50s and plenty of sunshine, get out and enjoy because next week looks like winter returns with a vengeance. Monday is not as confident here in the foothills as it is for the mountains. Most of monday will again be mild and dry with highs in the 50s. Towards evening a storm system will appoach along with some limited moisture but very cold air following it. Right now I think a few rain showers possible ending as a few snow flurries is a good bet. Although some of the models are hinting at this system trying to develop a low pressure on the coast and throwing more moisture our way which would lead to some accumulating snow Monday Night. If you live in the foothills stay tuned and again anything beyond Tuesday is really low confidence but there is another shot at accumulationg snow Wednesday - Thursday.

Piedmont-
Saturday will feature a few rain showers, drizzle and very chilly temperatures with highs most likely remaining below 40 degrees. Sunday will be milder than the previous days with highs reaching the upper 50s. Monday, just like the Foothills, is tricky. Right now I am expecting mild, dry conditions during the day with highs in the 50s. Monday night a system will approach from the west bringing the chance for a few rain showers that could end as flurries once the arctic air begins to invade. Some models are trying to develop a low pressure on the coast which could send moisture back into the piedmont as the cold air is invading leading to the potential for some accumulating snow. Again that is not the forecast call right now, but there is a chance that I will need to revise this forecast. Beyond tuesday is very low confidence. Stay tuned!

First Snow Map for Monday night:

Icy Thursday Night and Friday Morning

Updated: 5:30 pm

Forecast: Remains unchanged.

Mountains: (Freezing Rain Advisory)
Precipitation will begin over night as a mixture of snow and sleet. Accumulations of snow and sleet should remain less than 1" (dusting for most). Freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation type during the day Friday, especially on the Blue Ridge. Freezing rain should change to just rain west of Boone by late morning, but Icy conditions will hold on along the Blue Ridge until Friday evening. Accumulations of ice will range from a light glaze west to 0.10 - 0.25" from Boone east to the Blue Ridge. Everyone should change back over to a period of light snow Saturday. A dusting for most, but 1-2" are possible on the west facing slopes.

Foothills: (Freezing Rain Advisory) Along and north of I-40
A mixture of snow and sleet will develop over night, quickly transitioning to sleet and freezing rain. Freezing rain and sleet will continue through early afternoon before transitioning to plain rain Friday afternoon. Sleet accumulations should be light but a notable accumulation of freezing rain (0.15"-0.25") is expected on trees and power lines. I am still not expecting any tree damage or power outages. Rain will also be heavy at times with up to 1" expected in the northern Foothills and 1-2" over the southern foothills.

Piedmont: (Freezing Rain Advisory) Iredell, Rowan and Davie Counties
Sleet and maybe a few snowflakes will develop overnight quickly transitioning to freezing rain and rain. The northern Piedmont will likely see freezing rain through late morning, the rest of the Piedmont will transition to rain around daybreak Friday morning. Everyone will change to rain around noon Friday and the rain will be heavy through the afternoon and night time hours. 1-2" of rain will be possible.

*** Still watching two storm systems that could bring some type of wintry weather to the western Carolinas next week. Stay tuned! ***

MAPS:

Highlighted counties are where the National Weather Service has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory.

The map below is where I have predicted wintry precipitation for tomorrow morning:

Another Messy Storm, Arctic Air and More Winter Next Week

8:00 pm Wednesday Evening...

Forecast: (There is a lot of weather in the next 3 days... read carefully)

Change is coming, I promise. It is just taking us a while to get there.

Mountains - Temperatures will fall into the middle to upper teens tonight with a few flurries and snow showers on the Tennessee line (maybe a dusting there). Tomorrow will be cold with highs around 30 and increasing clouds in the afternoon. The next storm will move in late Thursday night into Friday morning. If the storm tracks just a little fast and further east then we could be looking at a substantial snow event. Right now I am favoring a brief snow (dusting for most) then changing to rain west of Boone and Freezing Rain east. There may be an extended period of freezing rain along the blue ridge Friday so be prepared for some slick travel. Everyone should change over to rain Friday night and the rain could be heavy at times. I expect a brief changeover back to snow on Saturday but no accumulation is expected right now.
***We are right on the line as far as temperatures go, if the track of the storm is faster or shifts more to the east a substantial snow event would be possible. Stay Tuned!!!***

Foothills- Temperatures tonight will fall into the middle to upper 20s. Tomorrow will be chilly with highs in the low 40s and increasing clouds in the afternoon. Another storm is expected to move in Friday morning. If the precipitation gets in early enough Friday then there could be a brief period of snow, but most of the precipitation Friday morning should fall as sleet and freezing rain. There could be an extended period of freezing rain creating hazardous driving and a 0.10" - 0.20" glaze on the trees and power lines. This is not enough to cause  downed trees or power lines. Everything should change over to all rain Friday around noon and could be heavy through Friday night. 1-2" of Rain are expected over the mountains and southern foothills and up to 1" of rain in the northern foothills.
***We are right on the line as far as temperatures go, if the track of the storm is faster or shifts more to the east a substantial snow event would be possible. Stay Tuned!!!***

Piedmont- Temperatures tonight will fall to around 30. Tomorrow will be chilly with highs in the mid to upper 40s and increasing afternoon clouds. Precipitation may start Friday morning as a few sleet pellets or light freezing rain. Most of the precipitation should fall as rain and it will be heavy at times. 1-2" of rain can be expected by the time the rain ends on Saturday.

Next week is looking colder and stormier than I had previously thought. Winter is really trying to hang on. There could be a couple chances for snow in the western Carolina's. I'll keep you posted.

MAPS: