Tuesday 6:22 am update

New Update:

The forecast for the storm still looks good. I still think a band of snow should swing out of the mountains wednesday evening across the northern foothills and northern piedmont. All the models are now supporting this. The European shows some pretty heavy snow over the western carolinas but the other models show it mostly along and north of I-40.

Here is the last image of the NAM model:

You can see the upper level low swinging across the western Carolinas Wednesday evening (Purple Circle) and the associated surface low pressure on the outer banks. The Surface low is really starting to intensify here pulling in the colder air (Blue 540 line is the "rain/snow" line) and changing the precipitation to snow.

Mountains:
Above 3,000 feet I am expecting 5-10" of snow. Snow should being falling around noon today or maybe earlier. The precipitation is coming in a little fast this morning. We will have to watch this. The clouds may have locked in some cold. That was one of the problems with this storm, having slowed down and missing the artic air. By this afternoon, the snow should mix with or change to all rain (again still speculation, I really need to watch the temps and dew points, mid 20's in Boone right now) creating a slushy mess. Rain should turn back to snow around sunrise wednesday or just before and snow will be Heavy at times during the day wednesday. If you are between 2,000 and 3,000 feet expect 3-5" of snow.

Foothills (everyone north of I-40):
Currently 24 degree's here at my house. I think the foothills willl start off with a few flakes around noon today or rain/snow mix, then quickly change to all rain. I think we are looking at a good 1/2" of much needed rain. The rain should taper off Wednesday morning before the upper level low moves in. Rain will start again early Wednesday evening and change to a Heavy wet snow over night. Only looking at a dusting to 1", but I still may need to change this to 1-3" if the upper low swings right over the foothills. The NAM and GFS have it just north of us.

Piedmont:
We could see snow or rain/snow mix at the onset of the precipitation before it changes quickly to rain. Looking at a good 1" + of rain, expecially as you go east of I-77. The rain should change over to a heavy wet snow even here in the piedmont wednesday evening. The best chance of seeing any accumulation would be north of I-40 from Hickory to statesville area.

I will look at everything this even and see if there area any changes.