Heavy Rain, Snowstorm, Arctic air then Spring????

10:00 pm update:

Forecast for tomorrow through Wednesday is high confidence.
Some very light freezing drizzle can be expected over night and in the morning from Boone to the Blue Ridge, maybe even in the northern foothills such as Patterson and the brushy mountain range. Heavy Rain with some thunder is expected tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, especially in the foothills and Piedmont. Still looking for rain totals between 1 and 2 inches in the mountains and foothills with up to 1 inch in the Piedmont. Once the front passes on Wednesday evening expect breezy conditions and much colder temperatures. Temperatures will fall to the upper teens to around 20 in the high country and the upper 20s off the mountain.

Thursday looks cold but clear and dry with plenty of sunshine!

Now for the low confidence part of the forecast. It does appear that a low pressure will develop in the western gulf of mexico thursday night/Friday morning and move northeast to eastern North Carolina by Saturday, throwing ample amounts of moisture into the western Carolina's. This is a classic track for a significant snow for the mountains and foothills. BUT... like last week the arctic air will be retreating to the north and east leaving us with a mild low level southerly flow bring in slightly warmer conditions. Yesterday we were concern about the track, now that we kinda have an idea about the track, timing will be an issue. If the storm speeds up, more cold air will still be in place, if the storm slows down the cold air will be gone leaving the western Carolina's (even the mountains) with a nasty cold rain or winter mix. I am not yet convinced either way.

The next few days will tell alot. Stay tuned!!!!

dgex model (which is a mix of the GFS and NAM models) showing significant snow over the Carolina's.

MAP

Pattern Change, but Winter Trying to Hang On!

6:45pm Update:

Forecast

Mountains-

Monday- will be much cooler with highs only in the upper 30s. Clouds will be increasing as a wedge will being to set-up and build down the east side of the Blue Ridge. Light rain and drizzle should develop by evening. Overnight temperatures will drop to near freezing in Boone and just below freezing along the Blue Ridge (Blowing Rock to Deep Gap) allowing for some light freezing rain and freezing drizzle. West of Boone it should remain all liquid.
Tuesday- watch for morning light freezing rain/freezing drizzle along the blue ridge. Everyone should warm above freezing between noon and early afternoon ending any icing that may occur. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with day time temperatures holding in the 30s. Over night a warm surge of air will move in. Temperatures should rise into the 40s maybe even 50s on the western slopes. Heavy rain will also move in overnight.
Wednesday- Heavy Rain will be falling through most of the morning with temps in the 40s (east) to 50s (west). By late afternoon a strong front will push through ending the heavy rain and causing temperatures to fall rapidly. Overnight temperatures will fall into the lower 20s and there is a chance for some snow flurries or a snow shower. No accumulation expected.

Foothills-

Monday- Skies will become cloudy with highs in the low to mid-40s. Light rain will develop in the evening hours. Overnight expect occasional showers and drizzle with temperatures just above freezing. ( We need to watch for the potential for some light freezing rain if temperatures fall a little more than expected) Northern Caldwell and Wilkes Counties, right along the Blue Ridge could see some light icing.
Tuesday- Light rain should end by noon, cloudy and cool conditions should continue most of the evening. Overnight temperatures will surge into the 50s, especially in the southern foothills and heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are likely.
Wednesday- Expect heavy rain and a few thunderstorms in the morning followed by clearing skies in the evening. Temperatures will fall overnight into the 30s.

For more on rain totals, potential icing and thunderstorm threats look at the maps on the previous post.

***Another storm system is expected to develop in the western gulf on Friday. With much colder air in place this weekend, depending on the track of the storm, it could bring a period of snow or rain to the western Carolina's. Track A would depect a snowier solutions. Track B would take the storm out to see and keep most of the moisture to our south. Stay tuned! ***

Weekend Storm Map Tracks:

Drought Busting Rains/Thunder Headed Our Way!

Saturday 4:30 pm Update:

Looks like the models have trended much further west over the past day. A Low Pressure should develop over west Texas and cut to the great lakes region next week. This should keep most of our precipitation in the form of rain. I was concerned about the potential of a strong wedge setting up creating the possibility for a significant ice storm. At this point in time the High Pressure that will be centered over New England does not look strong enough to keep the cold air at the surface in place keeping most of the precipitation as rain. After some light freezing rain Tuesday morning along the blue ridge everyone should change over to all liquid. In fact enough warm air may get into the Piedmont to cause the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms, especially along I-85. Colder air will rush in behind the cold front that is responsible for all the rain and may bring some LIGHT accumulations of snow to the western slopes Wednesday evening. The pattern looks to be changing some, with the brunt of the cold air headed for the southern plain as opposed to the south east. As the arctic air slides east (towards the south east) it will modify allowing the western Carolina's a break from this snowy pattern.

Forecast:

Mountains: Great weather for the rest of the weekend with lots of sunshine and highs in the 50s! Get out and enjoy!

Foothills: Lots of sunshine here as well with highs in the low to mid 60s!

**Stay tuned for details on next weeks storm and the potential for severe weather**

MAPS

Light Snow for Friday AM- Mountains

Thursday 6:00 pm (Had to revise the noon update SNOW MAP a bit)

A fast moving disturbance will move into the mountains later tonight and Friday morning bring the chance of some light snow.

Forecast:

Mountains- Expect a chilly but sunny afternoon with increasing clouds tonight. Light snow will develop in the early morning hours to around dawn and continue to around noon. A few left over snow flurries and snow showers will be possible through Friday afternoon. Accumulations will favor the western slopes. No accumulations to a very light dusting far east (Paul, Meaghan and Gregs house), Dusting to 1" for most (Boone area) and 1-2" west (Jodi and Pam).

Foothills- Dry, chilly weather will continues the next few days. Looks like a great weekend off the mountain with temperatures warming into the 50's with sunshine! Get out and enjoy cause winter has more tricks coming.

*** Still monitoring the possibility of a winter storm the middle of next week followed by a severe Arctic outbreak. Stay tuned the first 3 weeks of February looks very cold!***

Snow Map:

Repeat???

9:00 pm

GFS model showing 6-10" of snow over much of the western Carolina's next Wednesday. This is over a week out so do not get excited. Just keep in mind that all the major models are now showing a storm, the track and details will work themselves out over the next week.
This is not set in stone. Could be anything from rain, to freezing rain, to sleet or snow.

Here is the model...little eye candy for next week:)

**Stay tuned**

5:00 pm Update...

5:00 pm...

For the most part things have worked out as planned. Snow was very heavy this morning creating terrible road conditions and after a brief break, snow picked back up around lunch time through early afternoon. I think most places will pick up what was forecasted. I think we have between 2 and 3 inches here at the Wellness Center, about one inch lower than expected due to some warmer temperatures. Most places above 3600 feet are between 3 and 7 inches expecially toward the western end of the country and up into Ashe County.

Forecast: Mountains
Snow showers and flurries will continue off and on through the evening but I am not expect more than a dusting for most places, maybe another inch near the Tennessee line. Blowing snow will be a problem with winds gusting 25-35 mph tonight. Temperature will also drop to the low to mid 20's and roads will likely become very icy and hazardous as the evening progresses.
Thursday should start with some clouds but become increasingly sunny through the day, before clouds increase again at night. Temperatures will warm to near or just above freezing by the afternoon. Friday we will see a period of light snow showers and snow flurries in the morning ending around noon. Only expecting very light accumulations (dusting to maybe 1" for most). Another chance of snow flurries will be possible late Friday night into Saturday morning (no accumulation expected).

Foothills: Maybe a sprinkle or snow flurry this evening (no accumulation). Roads should dry up this evening before temperatures fall below freezing. Any roads that remain wet will be icy in the morning with temperatures in the mid-20s. Look for chilly be sunny weather through the weekend.



*** There is the possiblility of another storm the middle of next week that could bring some type of wintry weather to both the mountains and foothills but it is way to early for details and specifics. I'll keep you posted***

This is the final snow map of what most of the area received:

6:30 am

Forecast:
Remains unchanged. Everything is looking good this morning. The NAM has now come into better agreement with the other models.

Mountains: Rain/sleet this morning will change to a heavy wet snow between 8 and 10 am. Around Boone expect 3 or 4 inches with the 5,6 and maybe 7 inches up towards Ashe County. South of Boone into Avery County expect lower amounts of 2-4 inches. Check out the snow map on the previous post.
Friday night into Saturday expect light snow/flurries to break out, not expecting much accumulation.

Foothills: Sleet has been mixing with Rain this morning, expecially in the heavier showers. Caldwell County Schools are on a two hour delay. For the rest of this morning, expect some heavier rain/sleet to come through and maybe even a bit of thunder. I still expect the rain to mix or change over to snow this evening only accumulating to a dusting and it will be slushy.

Piedmont: Heavy rain showers will move through the northern piedmont with maybe some sleet and thunder. Mostly light rain elsewhere. Tonight rain should come to an end, possible mixing with a few snow flakes before ending.

Off to work!

Tuesday 8:30 pm update

8:30 pm update...

Forecast:
Remains mostly unchanged, 3-7" from Boone north into Ashe County, 2-4" from Boone South into Avery, Yancey, Madison and Mitchell Counties, 1-3" around Asheville, and a dusting to 1" still seems likely for the northern foothills (Caldwell, Alexander and Wilkes Counties)

Mountains: With temperatures creeping down this evening, look for some snow, sleet and freezing rain to mix with rain above 3,500 feet and along the Blue Ridge. I do not expect any accumulation tonight. Look for the change over to occur around or just after day break. Heavy snow should be falling by late morning. Snow could potenitally come down at 1-2" per hour. Road conditions will prob deteriorate very quickly by late morning.

Foothills: Light rain and drizzle should continue tonight. Heavier precipitation will move back in by mid-morning in the form of rain. So far we have had 0.15" of rain and I expect our total rainfall to be 0.50". I do expect the rain to mix with and change over to snow by late afternoon or early evening (around 5pm) Wednesday. Accumulations will be limited to the northern foothills (see snow map) north of I-40.

Piedmont: Drizzle/Fog will continue tonight. Expect some rain showers to move in during the late morning hours. Total rain fall should be generally less than 0.50". It is possible a few snow flakes mix with the rain in the northern piedmont around I-40 but I do not expect any accumulation.

Analysis:
Not much has changed. The models continue to show much different scenarios. I am still sticking with my latest snow map. I will show you why I think things will work out this way.

First: This is the most recent run of the GFS model, for 8 pm Wednesday evening:

The GFS has shift back to the south, you can see some very heavy snow falling over the mountains, if this comes true Boone would be looking at 5-10" or a bit more, but don't get to excited yet.

This is the latest run of the NAM model for 8 pm Wednesday evening:

The NAM continues to support a further north track and a much weaker upper low, as is shown by the lighter precipitation amounts. If the NAM is right I would need to lower the accumulations in Boone to 1-3". Unfortunately I can not show you the European or the Canadian Models. They both are closer to the GFS in intensity and their position is between the GFS and the NAM. So I am sticking with accumulations that are a compromise of all the models.

Again, I will stress... Upper level lows are very hard for the models to predict, thats why we are seeing such disagreement in the models. I will check the radar and see where the upper low is positioned in the morning and make any adjustments if I need too.

Night

Kris

Noon update

12:05 pm

I am lowering the snow totals a bit. Check-out the new snow map. Looking at the latest models I think the upper low is trending north meaning the heavier snow will be in sw Virginia and West Virginia. Still looks like a solid 3-7" from Boone north into Ashe County. 2-4" from Boone south through Avery County. 1-3" around the Asheville are. I do still expect a streak of snow through the foothills late tomorrow evening, but I am leaving the forecast as a dusting to 1" now that it looks like the upper low will track north of the area. Ill post some rain totals later today and tomorrow as well.

New Accumulation Map:

I'll update this evening.

Kris

Watches

I forgot to mention that Winter Storm Watches are up now for all of the mountain counties from Asheville to Boone.

Tuesday 6:22 am update

New Update:

The forecast for the storm still looks good. I still think a band of snow should swing out of the mountains wednesday evening across the northern foothills and northern piedmont. All the models are now supporting this. The European shows some pretty heavy snow over the western carolinas but the other models show it mostly along and north of I-40.

Here is the last image of the NAM model:

You can see the upper level low swinging across the western Carolinas Wednesday evening (Purple Circle) and the associated surface low pressure on the outer banks. The Surface low is really starting to intensify here pulling in the colder air (Blue 540 line is the "rain/snow" line) and changing the precipitation to snow.

Mountains:
Above 3,000 feet I am expecting 5-10" of snow. Snow should being falling around noon today or maybe earlier. The precipitation is coming in a little fast this morning. We will have to watch this. The clouds may have locked in some cold. That was one of the problems with this storm, having slowed down and missing the artic air. By this afternoon, the snow should mix with or change to all rain (again still speculation, I really need to watch the temps and dew points, mid 20's in Boone right now) creating a slushy mess. Rain should turn back to snow around sunrise wednesday or just before and snow will be Heavy at times during the day wednesday. If you are between 2,000 and 3,000 feet expect 3-5" of snow.

Foothills (everyone north of I-40):
Currently 24 degree's here at my house. I think the foothills willl start off with a few flakes around noon today or rain/snow mix, then quickly change to all rain. I think we are looking at a good 1/2" of much needed rain. The rain should taper off Wednesday morning before the upper level low moves in. Rain will start again early Wednesday evening and change to a Heavy wet snow over night. Only looking at a dusting to 1", but I still may need to change this to 1-3" if the upper low swings right over the foothills. The NAM and GFS have it just north of us.

Piedmont:
We could see snow or rain/snow mix at the onset of the precipitation before it changes quickly to rain. Looking at a good 1" + of rain, expecially as you go east of I-77. The rain should change over to a heavy wet snow even here in the piedmont wednesday evening. The best chance of seeing any accumulation would be north of I-40 from Hickory to statesville area.

I will look at everything this even and see if there area any changes.

Storm Tuesday through Thursday

OK. I finally broke down and created a blog so that I could share my weather knowledge to everyone. I know I am a nerd. Before I get started I just wanted to apologize to everyone for my spelling and grammar. It is really not good.

I know everyone has heard by now that a storm is coming this week. Honestly it looked much more impressive Friday than it does now. :(  The storm is in a perfect position for a classic snowstorm over much of the western carolinas. Unfortunitley the storm took longer to organize than expected so the artic air that had been in place is retreating and there is no High Pressure over New England to lock in the cold. The Mountains are a different story, anywhere from 5 to 10" of heavy wet snow will be possible above 3,000 feet.

This looks like a good soaking rain for much of the Carolina's. East of I-77 should see at least 1" of rain from this system. Back here in the foothills I think we could see up to 1/2" of Rain. I do think there is a good possibility that we change to snow at the end of the storm area wide. Although accumulations still look limited to the Northern Foothills of Caldwell and Wilkes Counties. Even there I am only expecting a dusting to 1" of snow. There is still some uncertainty with this event. I would not be suprised if I had to up the accumulations outside of the mountains a little bit. I will look at the models in the morning.

This is a picture of the GFS (Global Forecasting System) model Wednesday evening about 9 pm. The Blue dashed line is the "rain/snow" line. You can see a substantial amounts of precipitation still falling over western north carolina and this should be in the form of snow expecially in the foothills and mountains. Again, depending on how much cold air the upper low brings to the surface and how heavy the snow is falling will determine our accumulations.

This is a different model, the NAM (North American Model), showing very similar condition over the western Carolinas.

I think Winter Storm Watches will go out sometime tonight or in the morning for the mountain counties. I would not be suprised to see Winter Weather Advisories go out for parts of the foothills and maybe northern piedmont for Wednesday night.  Everyone keep in mind that this could still change either way. Upper level lows are very hard to forecast, weather models do not handle forecasting them very weell and sometimes we can get suprised. I will keep you posted.

This is my lastest thinking on snow accumulations as of Monday night at 10:00 pm.

I know some of you are sick of it, but not me! Hope I can increase some of the foothill totals in the morning!!!

Night.