Quiet Weather Through the Weekend!

10/31/2012
10:00pm

Unfortunately, Sandy lived up to her expectations delivering the worst hurricane hit to the mid-atlantic coast in a longtime and maybe ever. Nothing can describe some of the pictures I am seeing from coastal New Jersey and New York than just DEVASTATION. In fact a lot of the images sadly remind me of what I saw after Katrina. And for the mountains, our first significant snow of the year is behind us. Most areas in the high country broke October snowfall records.

The weather will turn quiet for the remainder of the week and through the weekend. Temperatures will remain on the chilly side of normal for early November. Although the still yet high sun angle will help to melt some of the snow.

By Sunday a storm system will begin to take shape again to our west as the Jet Stream once again begins to buckle. Right now we are getting two different scenarios:

1- The European (which did very well with Sandy) has a quick clipper type system that will bring some rain to the mountains and foothills, then heads out to sea never really developing a coast storm.

2- The GFS (which was slow to catch onto Sandy but still did well five days out) has the energy coming from Canada (clipper) and a piece of energy coming from the southwest phasing and bringing a storm up the coast. The storm would be nothing like the Super storm Sandy we just had but would likely bring interior snow to the Appalachians and rain/rough surf to the coast.

The north atlantic oscillation (NAO) remains very negative, which favors coastal storms, and the overall pattern next week looks very similar to this week so I am currently in favor of the GFS. Below is a map of what I think will happen next week:

It is entirely to early to determine whether we have snow in the mountains or rain, but temperatures will remain chilly. Stay tuned for updates on next weeks weather. -Kris

Significant Storm Now looks Likely!

10.26.12
11:30 pm

Sandy is beginning to transition to a hybrid or ex-tropical system but is also about to undergo explosive strengthening. Most tropical systems begin to weaken when they lose their tropical characteristics. The    opposite will occur in this scenario. A very strong arctic/polar jet stream is going to dig underneath Sandy ventilating the system over very warm waters off the east coast and allow the system to really deepen rapidly. The pressure currently is 969 mb, I expect the pressure in Sandy to bottom out around 945 mb. The National Hurricane Center will probably keep the system named Hurricane Sandy but she is really a very large and dangerous nor'easter now.

I want to be clear, this is a life-threatening storm for the mid-atlantic and northeast. This could be a once and a lifetime storm for them. North Carolina will see significant impacts but this is NOT... going to be a Historic storm for the Tar-heel State but it can still cause property damage and loss of life if not taken seriously. So please be prepared!

My current track (please keep in mind that this is a MASSIVE system so it will have far reaching affects):

Forecasted SUSTAINED Wind Speeds (expect higher gust):

Forecasted Snowfall:

Forecasted impacts for North Carolina:

Mountains: 

• Snow- could be heavy with significant accumulations of 4" or more possible (Sunday night- Tuesday night)
• Winds- 30-50 mph gusts to 65 mph
•  Possible Tree Damage and the "potential" for widespread power outages

Foothills and Piedmont: 

• Mostly dry, few showers or rain squalls
• Winds- 25-35 mph gusts to 50 mph
•  Possible Tree Damage (mostly large branches) and isolated power outages

Coastal Areas: 

• Heavy rain and squalls, flooding possible
• Winds - 45-55 mph gusts to 70 mph
• Breaking waves- 12-18' northern outer banks, 20' Hatteras Island, 8-12' Wilmington area.
• Tree Damage likely, roof shingle damage, widespread power outages, significant coastal          flooding and erosion

I will try to update again tomorrow evening or Sunday with more details on potential impacts to the region. -Kris                    

Sandy and Superstorm?

10.22.12 8:00 pm

Yesterday I talked about the possibility of soon to be Sandy phasing with the strong trough that is coming down out of NW Canada, this scenario is actually looking more likely and is now the most likely solution which will create a massive "Hybrid Super-storm" over the mid-atlantic and northeast United States.

The blue track (1) is the track that will phase Sandy with the strong trough diving to the southeast. I give this solution a 1 in 2 or 50% chance of occurring today. This will cause a huge storm of historic proportions for the northeast and mid-atlantic with over hurricane force winds on the coast, large storm surge and flooding rains. It will also cause Blizzard conditions and several feet of snow over the interior mountains to the southwest of the track. Places such as PA, WVa, OH NY and into MI could be in line for major snows. 

The purple track (2) I give a 35% chance of occurring, where the low level center of Sandy continues to the northeast and does not phase with the trough but some of Sandy's energy and heat gets  transferred into the trough and still creates a larger storm but probably not a historic storm. This track still would have strong winds and beach erosion on the coast and heavy interior snows but not to the magnitude of track one. 

The red track (3) I give a 15% chance of occurring. This is the least likely scenario. In fact the only model showing this track is the GFS and it notoriously has trouble flattening out the trough and spreading the energy out instead of bundling it. This track would lead to no storm, keeping Sandy and the trough completely separate. The east would still get cold and lake effect snows would still fly but no significant storm.

Here is my forecast track and intensity of Sandy through the rest of the week, keep in mind after this time is when the phasing and significant storm over the northeast will occur.

I will have more on what will happen with Sandy and the potential "super-storm" later this week.

Below is the image of the European model with Hurricane/Nor'easter Sandy at peak intensity of 928 mb. Keep in mind Katrina was 920 at her first landfall in Louisiana and Hurricane Andrew was 922 mb. So this is a very intense storm making landfall in New England.

(model image courtesy of weather-bell analytics and weatherbell.com)

Regardless of the outcome, much colder air will dive into the east late in the weekend and next week and will likely still bring the seasons first snow flakes (flurries and light snow showers) to the North Carolina high country. Even if a massive storm occurs it should be far enough to the north and east that the high country escapes a crippling snow event.

Stay tuned for updates... Kris

One Last Tropical System and Then A Cold Start to November

Most of this week will be an easy forecast. Temperatures will be about 4-6 degrees above normal and abundant sunshine.

Here is the latest image from the National Hurricane Center:

They are giving the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean a High (70%) chance of tropical storm formation in the next 48 hours. This system should become a named storm by Tuesday (Tropical Storm Sandy) and be in the southern Bahamas by Wednesday. After that things get a little bit interesting. A strong trough will be diving out of western Canada towards the southeast. The most likely scenario would be for soon to be Sandy to get picked up and recurved out to sea. Sandy is likely to become a minimal hurricane as she passes off shore of the southeast United States. Below is the Map I created this morning in regard to what I am currently thinking. The red points are my actual forecast position and intensity of soon to be Sandy. The yellow cone represents the possible scenarios. 

The less likely scenario would be for the trough to phase with Sandy and actually pull the storm into the Mid-Atlantic States. I am calling this scenario the Hazel idea. In 1954 Hurricane Hazel developed south of the Dominican Republic and was pulled NE across the island before it was captured by a trough coming southeast. Hazel phased with this trough which not only caused a NW motion but also intensified the storm. Hazel made landfall on the North Carolina/South Carolina border on the morning of October 15th 1954 as a category 4 hurricane.

 This scenario is not my current forecast but is not that far fetched of an Idea. Right now I give this scenario a 20% chance of occurring. 

Regardless, high waves and strong rip currents will be possible by late week for most of the east coast. and after the trough moves in from Canada very cold air for this time of year will be in place. There is a good chance that the first snow flakes of the year will be flying across the North Carolina mountains by next Sunday or Monday (just flurries or snow showers). I will post more on the cold coming later.

updated: 10/21/12 at 9:07 am

First Major Cold Snap Looms.
Of course now that winter is approaching, I'll be back to blogging. Hopefully I can do a lot better than last year in terms of accuracy. :)

Overall the weather will be rather calm the next 7 days. This weekend will be chilly, especially Saturday. We could see some valley frost Saturday night and again Sunday night. Next week looks fairly warm for most of the Western Carolina's.

After next week, a major pattern shift looks likely as cold air and storminess will be building to our north and west across the plain states. The season's last tropical system is likely to develop in the western Caribbean and move through the Bahamas and up just off shore of the east coast which should help deepen the trough diving into the eastern United States. Along with this cold shot, a widespread killing frost/freeze is likely for a good portion of the southeast including the western Carolina's. The mountains may also see their first northwest flow snow flurries or showers (no big deal).

Forecasted Temperature Anomaly Ranges: Through 10.26.12

Most of next week looks warm but you can see the Cold beginning to build along the Canadian Boarder. These are temperature anomalies, or how far above or below average temperatures are. So Montana's temperatures next week look to be about 6 to 12 degrees below average for this time of year and our temperatures look to be up to 6 degrees above average for this time of year.

Forecasted Temperature Anomaly Ranges: 10.27.12 - 11.1.12 (Maps by Kris Hartley)

Towards the end of October and the beginning of November a strong through will move into the eastern 2/3 of the nation allowing that very cold air along the Canadian border to spill into the south and east parts of the country.  Temperatures as you can see are forecasted to be significantly below average. Looking even further out: much of November as it stands now looks cold.

Updated: 10.19.12 at 11:56 pm.

Light Snow Event #2 and Another Cold shot next week...

Last night was a wild evening again in the mountains. Temperatures dropped 20 degrees in 1.5-2 hours. What began as rain turned to ice and eventually THUNDER SNOW!!! Heavy Snow started falling in Boone around 9:00 pm last evening along with thunder, lightning and winds to 60 mph. Roads were extremely hazardous this morning along with many reports of near white-out conditions. Forecast snow totals where on the money with dusting-1" in the far east, 2-3" where most people live and 3-5"+ on the western side of the county. Beech and Sugar both reported 6"+ of snow through today.

Forecast Discussion: Temperatures will fall rapidly tonight as winds begin to slack off some. Valley's in the mountains will fall deep in the teens and maybe a few single digits. Boone should fall to about 15 and the ridge tops should hold steady or warm slightly. Temperatures in the foothills should fall to about 20-22  and 22-25 in the Piedmont. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer, temperatures will approach the 32 degree mark in the mountains, 42-45 in the Foothills and 45-47 in the Piedmont.

Tomorrow night another small but potent upper level disturbance will approach the mountains. Snow will break out later tomorrow evening. Expect a dusting - 2" for most with 2-3" at the higher elevations near the Tennessee line. A few flurries or light snow showers are also possible in the Foothills and northern Piedmont. Tomorrow nights event should not produce near the problems on the roads that we saw this morning in the mountains. Temperatures will moderate as we head into the first of next week. Rain should arrive Tuesday morning before another strong cold front crashes through the area Wednesday. Snow showers will again be possible Wednesday in the mountains behind this strong cold front.

Tomorrow nights snow map:

Long Range: Next weeks cold shot should last 3-4 days before moderating. The rest of January will feature some warm spells and cold shots with wetter than average conditions. Look for a Change to colder weather by the end of January and the First of February. Overall temperatures will be much cool than they have been for most of the winter and by the beginning of February the pattern change should be complete. I still expect to see several snow events from February-March in the Foothills and Piedmont locations.

Update: 1.13.12
10:30pm

Tornado's? Two Light Snow Events Coming...

Today turned out mostly as expected. Rain fell most of the day, heavy at times. Officially here at my weather station we picked up 1.42" of rain which was right in the middle of the 1-2" forecast.I am sure there were some totals between 2-3" along the blue ridge. I did not see the severe weather coming that we had this evening. A possible tornado occurred (which I labeled in red on the snow-map) in the foothill causing significant structure damage to some areas. At one point several people were trapped in their basement after their home collapsed and several injuries have been report from a mobile home being overturned. Based on the reports I have heard I do think this will be a confirmed tornado and probably be rated an EF-2 (winds 111-135 mph). Temperatures were in the 40s and some low 50s which usually is not warm enough to support severe weather but the upper level dynamics rotated right across the area creating very unstable conditions right around sunset leading to our mini-severe weather outbreak. Some of these thunderstorms contained hail, vivid lightning and cloud tops that extended over 30,000ft high. These types of thunderstorms are usually observed in the spring and summer around here.

Forecast Discussion:
Tomorrow could be another wild day but much more winter like. Fog will give way to mostly/partly cloudy conditions by noon for most of the area. A strong low pressure area over the great lakes will drag a strong cold front through the region Thursday night with strong winds, more rain/thunderstorms changing quickly to snow showers/few snow squalls in the mountains. A small chance that the rain ends as a few flurries in the foothills and Piedmont with no accumulation. A strong upper level disturbance along that cold front will pass through east Tennessee into Kentucky and West Virginia really enhancing the snowfall in those areas but just missing most of NW North Carolina to the north. If this disturbance tracks further south tomorrow then expect greater snow amounts but as of right now it looks to pass just north or the area. Either way, expect rapidly falling temperatures and snow covered road ways for most of the high country. Winds will gust over 45 mph in the mountains and near 30 mph in the Foothills and Piedmont.

Forecast Accumulations:
Beech Mountain, Rich Mountain, Snake Mountain: 3-5"
Western Side of Boone: 2-4"
Boone: 2"
Blowing Rock, Rutherwood, Deep Gap: Dusting-2"

Accumulation Map:

Over the weekend another area of low pressure looks to aim at the Carolina's. I do think the models are having a hard time picking up on this system but it still looks fairly weak, regardless this could be the first chance for area's outside of the mountains to see some snowfall. This would be for Sunday. I do expect this system to bring light accumulation to at least the mountains. Right now I do not expect any accumulations in the Foothills or Piedmont but I will keep you posted.

Sunday Map:

Updated: 1.11.12

8:15 pm