Not as Much Rain as Expected But Still on for Snow

9 March 2011    9:00 PM


We dodged a bullet today. A large expansive complex of thunderstorms developed along the gulf coast robing us of the "potential" moisture. We see this happen sometimes in the winter with snowstorms. Models do a very bad job at forecasting this and its almost impossible to detect until you see how the complex is interacting with the front. So in this case most of the gulf moisture fed right into this complex of thunderstorms stopping it from being transported to our area. If this was a snowstorm I would have been very disappointed but since it kept us from having major flooding we should be thankful.

Regardless, we are not completely out of the woods. The front has not passed us yet, new low pressure is beginning to develop along it allowing thunderstorms and heavier rain to develop over night which could produce an additional 0.50-1.00". If you are caught under a thunderstorm or heavier shower some isolated flooding is still possible but wide spread flooding is no longer expected. At my station in Lenoir we received 1.33" of rain. Still a very decent rainfall but just under the 2.00" threshold needed for flooding and under the 2.00-4.00" that was forecast. Even with the additional rain, creeks and streams will have had time to drop before additional rain falls lowing the flood threat. I assume the national weather service will drop the flood watch sometime later on tonight.

Updated Snow Map:

Behind this front cold air will push it (colder than last weekend) allowing precipitation to change over to snow. Significant snow is looking likely, especially in the higher elevations near the Tennessee line.  

Timeline:
The change over will start first at the highest elevations. By 8:00 am the snow level should be around 5000 feet. (Snow will be falling on Beech, Top of Sugar, Grandfather, Elk Knob, Snake Mountain, etc...). The snow level should fall to 4000 feet by 10:00 am (Banner Elk, Howard's Knob, Rich Mountain etc...). By noon everyone above 3000 feet should be in the snow (most other places) and by mid-afternoon snow will likely be falling even on the valley floors above 2000 feet.

Accumulations during the day tomorrow will favor the high elevations. 3-6" with isolated 8" is forecast above 5000 feet near the Tennessee line. Most places will see 1-4" with snow falling much of the afternoon but accumulations being limited to Thursday evening and overnight Thursday. With a dusting to 1" expected in the valleys below 3000 feet and in the far eastern areas of the high county. This is a pretty dynamic upper low so it is possible that we see more snow than forecast. Especially in the higher elevations. Lower elevations will see heavy snow falling but because of warmer temperatures and ground temperatures, accumulations will be limited some.

Lastly, next week is looking very interested. I will not say the "s" word outside of the mountains just yet but some of the models are hinting at a late season winter storm for the southeast. I told everyone winter would come back in March.
Stay tuned!!!

Potentially Dangerous Storm Headed our Way.

8 March 2011

As precipitations moves in tonight, it could begin as a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The atmosphere is very dry right now so that will help cool the temperatures at the surface to near freezing. It is also possible that this precipitation never makes it to the surface because of that dry air and by the time the atmosphere moistens up enough it will be warm enough for rain. Just be prepare in the morning just in case.

The rest of the forecast from yesterday remains unchanged. Most of the mountains and foothills will see 2-4"of rain some places right along the blueridge may see isolated totals 4"+. This amount of rain along with wet soil conditions will cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as main rivers. Significant to possible Major flooding is likely. We will also need to watch for mudslides and debris flows as well.

The severe thunderstorm risk is low right now but there is an outside chance that we do get some storms to go severe, expecially tomorrow night just because the upper level dynamics moving in are so strong, it wont be all that warm and unstable.

And finally, I still think a significant snow event is possible above 4000 feet along the Tennessee line. 2-4" is the call above 4000 feet with isolated 5"+ above 5000 feet along the Tennessee line. Most of the region will see 1-2" with just a dusting below 3000 feet (east). This is a very dynamic storm so it is possible that we get some heavier burst of snow Thursday evening. If that happens more accumulation may occur at lower elevations cause the snow rate will overcome the melt rate from the warm ground.

Map of Snow Forecast:

Map of Rainfall Forecast: ( No change from yesterday)

Looking ahead, next week looks colder and the potential exist for some March snow. Stay tuned for updates on flooding and changes to the snow amounts.

Major Flood Event Looms... More Snow Possible Thursday Afternoon/Night.

7 March 2011
9:30 Pm

More Wild Weather is coming.

A strong storm system brough significant rain totals and even snow to the mountains this weekend, I am very concerned about the possibility of a stronger storm system with even more rain than this last one and more snow as well. Here is how it will play out...

Low Pressure will develop and move out of the Rocky's tomorrow. A Major severe weather event is likely in the lower Mississppi River valley. These storms well sweep through the south east Tuesday night and Wednesday. Severe weather should be limited to area's south of I-20 which is not anywhere near western North Carolina. As the front moves east it will slow down and a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the slowing front. This new low pressure will move right up the Appalachian Mountains enhancing precipitaiton totals. This is not set in stone yet, but 7 of the 8 major forecast models area now show this senario with tremendous rain totals.

Map Showing Developing Storm:

NAM model forecasted precipitation totals:

This is why I am very concern about the possibility of Major Flooding across the entire region. This model is showing  2-3.5 inches of rain over most of the region. Some of the other models are forecasting even higher rain totals.

Map showing rain totals across the region during the past storm:

Right along the Blue Ridge and the Adjacent Foothills recieved the most rain out of this past event with a genearl 2-4" with isolated 6-8" along the North Carolina/South Carolina Boarder south of Asheville. Rivers and Streams have receded but are still running high and grounds are still very saturated. It would only take rain amounts of 2" to produce significant flooding and most of the models are predicting 2-4" + of rain. If you live in flood prone areas please be prepared for flooding and flash flooding. Streams and creeks my rise rapidly.

My forecast map for the coming storm:

Flood and Flash Flood Watches will likely be issued tonight or sometime tomorrow. Also, I have not touched on this yet tonight but it is also looking likely that enough cold are my rush in behind the system to produce a period of significant accumulating snow (2-4"+) in elevations above 4000 or 4500 feet. Snow levels will lower to the Valley floors Thursday evening but only a dusting is expected due to warmer temperatures and warmer ground temperatures.

Tomorrow I will update on the potential for a major flood and on the prospects of snow. Please Stay tuned. This is looking like a dangerous storm for the mountains and foothills.

Wild Weather...

Sorry its been so long... I will try to do a more in depth blog this evening.

There are many reports coming in of some serious flooding and there are several road closures being reported across Watauga County. In Caldwell County I have not heard of any road closures yet but creeks and streams are right a bank-full and with another area of heavy rain moving in from the south it is only a matter of time before we begin to see flooding in the foothills as well. Flood Warnings are in affect for Watauga, Ashe, Alleghany, Surry and Wilkes Counties. A Flood Advisory has been issued for Burke, Caldwell, Alexander and Catawba Counties. Flash Flood Warnings are in affect for Henderson and Polk Counties (south of Asheville).

On top of that, the Mountains are now in a Winter Weather Advisory. I could see 2-4" + of snow above 3700 feet (Beech Mountain, Rich Mountain, Howard's Knob, Grandfather, App Ski, Sugar, Banner Elk...you get the idea) and 1-3" between 3000-3700 (most places, Boone, Blowing Rock etc...) and a dusting between 2000-3000 feet (Foscoe, Valle Cruis).

**It is possible the snow may come down extremely heavy during the early afternoon hours so do not be surprised if the roads become very treacherous. With a low 23-26 tonight it is likely with all the rain that we have  very icy roads plus snow on top. Please be prepared. **


Tonight I will discuss the mid-week storm. We may repeat this process with heavy rains and flooding ending as a period of heavy snow that again may accumulate several inches. I have been trying to bring home this point for a month now that winter would return the first to second week of march. It will be nothing like December and January but we will see some colder, snowier days the next few weeks.