Light Snow Event #2 and Another Cold shot next week...

Last night was a wild evening again in the mountains. Temperatures dropped 20 degrees in 1.5-2 hours. What began as rain turned to ice and eventually THUNDER SNOW!!! Heavy Snow started falling in Boone around 9:00 pm last evening along with thunder, lightning and winds to 60 mph. Roads were extremely hazardous this morning along with many reports of near white-out conditions. Forecast snow totals where on the money with dusting-1" in the far east, 2-3" where most people live and 3-5"+ on the western side of the county. Beech and Sugar both reported 6"+ of snow through today.

Forecast Discussion: Temperatures will fall rapidly tonight as winds begin to slack off some. Valley's in the mountains will fall deep in the teens and maybe a few single digits. Boone should fall to about 15 and the ridge tops should hold steady or warm slightly. Temperatures in the foothills should fall to about 20-22  and 22-25 in the Piedmont. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer, temperatures will approach the 32 degree mark in the mountains, 42-45 in the Foothills and 45-47 in the Piedmont.

Tomorrow night another small but potent upper level disturbance will approach the mountains. Snow will break out later tomorrow evening. Expect a dusting - 2" for most with 2-3" at the higher elevations near the Tennessee line. A few flurries or light snow showers are also possible in the Foothills and northern Piedmont. Tomorrow nights event should not produce near the problems on the roads that we saw this morning in the mountains. Temperatures will moderate as we head into the first of next week. Rain should arrive Tuesday morning before another strong cold front crashes through the area Wednesday. Snow showers will again be possible Wednesday in the mountains behind this strong cold front.

Tomorrow nights snow map:

Long Range: Next weeks cold shot should last 3-4 days before moderating. The rest of January will feature some warm spells and cold shots with wetter than average conditions. Look for a Change to colder weather by the end of January and the First of February. Overall temperatures will be much cool than they have been for most of the winter and by the beginning of February the pattern change should be complete. I still expect to see several snow events from February-March in the Foothills and Piedmont locations.

Update: 1.13.12
10:30pm

Tornado's? Two Light Snow Events Coming...

Today turned out mostly as expected. Rain fell most of the day, heavy at times. Officially here at my weather station we picked up 1.42" of rain which was right in the middle of the 1-2" forecast.I am sure there were some totals between 2-3" along the blue ridge. I did not see the severe weather coming that we had this evening. A possible tornado occurred (which I labeled in red on the snow-map) in the foothill causing significant structure damage to some areas. At one point several people were trapped in their basement after their home collapsed and several injuries have been report from a mobile home being overturned. Based on the reports I have heard I do think this will be a confirmed tornado and probably be rated an EF-2 (winds 111-135 mph). Temperatures were in the 40s and some low 50s which usually is not warm enough to support severe weather but the upper level dynamics rotated right across the area creating very unstable conditions right around sunset leading to our mini-severe weather outbreak. Some of these thunderstorms contained hail, vivid lightning and cloud tops that extended over 30,000ft high. These types of thunderstorms are usually observed in the spring and summer around here.

Forecast Discussion:
Tomorrow could be another wild day but much more winter like. Fog will give way to mostly/partly cloudy conditions by noon for most of the area. A strong low pressure area over the great lakes will drag a strong cold front through the region Thursday night with strong winds, more rain/thunderstorms changing quickly to snow showers/few snow squalls in the mountains. A small chance that the rain ends as a few flurries in the foothills and Piedmont with no accumulation. A strong upper level disturbance along that cold front will pass through east Tennessee into Kentucky and West Virginia really enhancing the snowfall in those areas but just missing most of NW North Carolina to the north. If this disturbance tracks further south tomorrow then expect greater snow amounts but as of right now it looks to pass just north or the area. Either way, expect rapidly falling temperatures and snow covered road ways for most of the high country. Winds will gust over 45 mph in the mountains and near 30 mph in the Foothills and Piedmont.

Forecast Accumulations:
Beech Mountain, Rich Mountain, Snake Mountain: 3-5"
Western Side of Boone: 2-4"
Boone: 2"
Blowing Rock, Rutherwood, Deep Gap: Dusting-2"

Accumulation Map:

Over the weekend another area of low pressure looks to aim at the Carolina's. I do think the models are having a hard time picking up on this system but it still looks fairly weak, regardless this could be the first chance for area's outside of the mountains to see some snowfall. This would be for Sunday. I do expect this system to bring light accumulation to at least the mountains. Right now I do not expect any accumulations in the Foothills or Piedmont but I will keep you posted.

Sunday Map:

Updated: 1.11.12

8:15 pm

Updated NAM snowfall forecast

Updated: 1/10/11 
11:30 pm

This is the latest NAM update, it is showing a more robust arctic front with moderate accumulations of snow for Thursday night. Early indications are for 1-2" on the east, 2-4" around Boone and 4-5" near the Tennessee line.

(This is not my forecast map, I will put out my snowfall forecast map tomorrow, this is only one model and only one run, so don't get to excited yet, just wanted to show that this could put down a good bit of snow in just a few hours Thursday night):

Click the link below to view the MAP:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GSP

Pattern Change

Now that I have the GRE and my six wisdom teeth behind me, I am going to try to keep up with this blog a little better. 

Forecast Discussion: A developing low pressure will move from the western gulf coast states through our area tomorrow and be offshore the mid-Atlantic states tomorrow night. The forecast through tomorrow evening is pretty much set in stone. Rain, heavy at times will be the theme for late tonight through much of the day tomorrow. Most places will see a good 1-2" including the Piedmont, foothills and the mountains. The favored SE facing slopes along the blue-ridge could see as much as 2-3" of rain. The national weather service has issued a flood watch for all the mountain and foothills counties (link to view the flood watches by county: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gsp/. I do not think this is a wide spread flood event but if you live in flood prone areas be prepared for a few creeks and streams to approach or exceed bank-full. 

Rainfall forecast Map:

Beyond Wednesday night things get more interesting. A powerful cold front with semi-arctic air will be pushing into the area behind our rainstorm. The Front will be delayed by 18-24 hrs. Rain should push out sometime Wednesday evening and the cold front will move in after lunch on Thursday. I do expect to see some up-slope snow showers Thursday evening. Models disagree on how much moisture will be associated with this front. Some of the models show a very dynamic front with lightning, thunder and heavy snow squalls while others show a less enthusiastic approach with much colder temps and only light snow showers. Regardless it will be much colder and windy. Any snow that does fall will accumulate pretty easily so be prepared for some slick roads. Outside of the mountains sky's will clear but it will become increasingly windy and cold. Highs may not get out of the 30s on Friday in the foothills and only lower 40s on Saturday. By the weekend we could again be talking about the potential for more snow in the mountains. A low pressure will approach from the NW on Saturday and Sunday and depending on it's eventual track could bring another light snow event to the area. If this low tracks through our just south of North Carolina a few flurries or snow showers could sneak into the foothills an Piedmont.  

Pattern setting up for the weekend:

Overall the pattern is going to be turning much colder than what it has been. In reality it will probably be back to "normal" but because this winter has been so mild it will feel like a shock. I can tell you that their are signs pointing towards even colder and snowier weather as we head into February. This will definitely be a two sided winter. Something for the snow lovers to look forward too and for the warm enthusiast, well you've had your string of nice days now its our turn! :) Stay tuned for updates on our light snow events.

Updated: 1/10/12

8:00 pm