Snow Update:

Tuesday December 6, 2011

Basically the forecast remains unchanged. I will post a map of accumulations that I think are likely. This still has the potential to be a big snow event in the high country, especially in the higher elevations. I am seeing some forecast of 1-2" or 1-3", I personally think that is low but we will see. Regardless, temperatures will drop in a hurry tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. I am expecting the temperatures to drop into the mid-20s. The combination of heavy wet snow and runoff from all the rain tonight and tomorrow morning will cause serious ice to develop on area roadways underneath the snow. Travel late tomorrow night and early Thursday morning will be extremely hazardous. The terrible driving conditions will also be accompanied by winds gusting to 45mph and blowing snow by Thursday morning.

I expect the change over to occur earlier than I thought yesterday. Starting between 3-4 pm in the highest elevations and working it's way down to everyone else by evening. Snow should be falling in most places by 8pm and it will be Heavy for a while (big fat flakes).

Accumulation Map:

Specific Accumulations:
Mount Mitchell, Great Smoky Mountains: 6-12"
Beech, Sugar, Snake Mountain, Elk Knob, Rich Mountain: 4-6" isolated 8"
Banner Elk, Boone (where most people live): 3-5" isolated 6"
Foscoe, Valle Crucis: 1-3"
Northern Foothills (Caldwell and Wilkes Counties): no accumulation - very light dusting

Updated: 8:30 pm

Potential Major Snowstorm for the East Coast????

Monday December 5, 2011

Snow headed this way???
There is not a lot of talk from other meteorologist of the potential for significant snow. Not sure what they are waiting on but the models are being consistent in at least showing a little snow on the end of all the rain. Several of the major models are jumping on the idea that a potent wave of low pressure will develop along a slow moving front and bring significant snow to the high country. I think everyone will see rain from now through Wednesday. A change over to snow will begin in the highest elevations first (Wednesday evening) working it's way down to the Boone area over night and down towards the foothills by daybreak Thursday. This has the potential to be a Significant Snow for everyone above 2,000 ft. I think the cold air will initially have trouble getting over the mountains so the foothills will likely only see a brief change over to snow early Thursday morning limiting the accumulations off the mountain.

My first take on Accumulations *** Subject to change***
Mountains: 3-6"+
Foothills: Dusting-2"

This system is still out over the New Mexico region, once it breaks out into the southern plains the models will get a much better handle on what will happen. Tomorrow afternoons models will tell the story, stay tuned...

Updated: 10:20 pm

Back to being a Weather Nerd. Snowstorm potential for late week?

 December 4th, 2011


I am not going to say much on this just yet. Just want everyone to be aware that their is a potential snowstorm on the horizon from late Wednesday night through Friday morning. Several models are picking up on this potential but with various solutions. The GFS model forecasts the storm further north with rain to start for most places but ending with a 2-4 hour window of heavy snow in the mountains above 3,500 ft. The European model shows the storm further south (but weaker) bringing the rain snow line down to about interstate 40. If the euro is correct the mountains and northern foothills north of I-40 would see several inches of snow. At this point it is hard to determine which model is correct but I am tending to side with the GFS (for now). Stay tuned...

Map of Potential Snow:

Updated: 10:00 pm